Sha Tin · 2020-10-11

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A+3 9 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-11 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. DUBLIN STAR, ridden by C Schofield and trained by K L Man, won by 2-1/4, with HELAKU KNIGHT second and BIG LUCK CHAMP third. The 2.8 favourite NOBLE DESIRE finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.09.08

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	DUBLIN STAR B 1.09.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · K L Man	C Schofield	K L Man	2	130 lb	3.4	2-1/4
2	3	HELAKU KNIGHT H2 N Callan · D A Hayes	N Callan	D A Hayes	4	129 lb	10.0	2-1/4
3	4	BIG LUCK CHAMP B Shinn · P O'Sullivan	B Shinn	P O'Sullivan	7	125 lb	8.6	2-1/2
4	1	MONKEY JEWELLERY Z Purton · J Size	Z Purton	J Size	3	133 lb	3.8	2-3/4
5	7	ALLOY KING H N Wong · K H Ting	H N Wong	K H Ting	1	119 lb	123.0	3-1/4
6	8	NOBLE DESIRE CP/XB A Hamelin · D J Whyte	A Hamelin	D J Whyte	5	116 lb	2.8	4
7	5	SCENIC SWEETIE H1 C Y Ho · Y S Tsui	C Y Ho	Y S Tsui	9	125 lb	37.0	5-3/4
8	6	SURE WIN WIN B- A Badel · T P Yung	A Badel	T P Yung	6	123 lb	19.0	8
9	9	PLANET FLYER B C Wong · W Y So	C Wong	W Y So	8	110 lb	165.0	9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick DUBLIN STAR (35.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	DUBLIN STAR	35.5%	2.82	1	3.4
2	1	MONKEY JEWELLERY	25.1%	3.98	4	3.8
3	8	NOBLE DESIRE	18.5%	5.39	6	2.8
4	3	HELAKU KNIGHT	7.4%	13.55	2	10.0
5	5	SCENIC SWEETIE	5.4%	18.51	7	37.0
6	4	BIG LUCK CHAMP	4.2%	23.55	3	8.6
7	6	SURE WIN WIN	2.3%	44.25	8	19.0
8	9	PLANET FLYER	1.0%	97.71	9	165.0
9	7	ALLOY KING	0.6%	178.35	5	123.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 34

PLACE

2 12.5

3 25.5

4 21

QUINELLA

2,3 188

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 50

2,4 47.5

3,4 84

FORECAST

2,3 393

TIERCE

2,3,4 1,837

TRIO

2,3,4 415

FIRST 4

1,2,3,4 152

QUARTET

2,3,4,1 4,509

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 19.5

A3 —

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1200m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99