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Sha Tin · 2020-10-11

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A+3 13 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-11 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CRAIG'S STAR, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by C S Shum, won by 2, with CHANCHENG PRINCE second and E STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite STAR OF YUEN LONG finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.20.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 CRAIG'S STAR Closed strongly B 1.20.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · C S Shum 9 5.3 2
2 11 CHANCHENG PRINCE Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui 4 36.0 2
3 7 E STAR Closed strongly H N Callan · K L Man 10 25.0 2-1/4
4 5 TEMPEST EXPRESS Closed strongly E A Badel · J Size 7 10.0 2-3/4
5 12 KA YING EXCELLENT CP/TT K C Leung · A S Cruz 3 6.4 2-3/4
6 1 STAR OF YUEN LONG B Z Purton · K L Man 11 2.9 3-3/4
7 10 BRIGHT KID Closed strongly B/XB H N Wong · W Y So 5 61.0 4
8 4 WIN WIN B V Borges · T P Yung 8 13.0 4-1/4
9 8 FLYING VICTORY H/TT C Schofield · F C Lor 12 30.0 5-3/4
10 9 VICTORY POWER B/XB A Hamelin · D J Whyte 2 9.9 7-3/4
11 3 SIMPLE ELEGANT Led early V M F Poon · P F Yiu 1 7.9 9-3/4
12 13 ORIENTAL AMIGO H W Lai · Y S Tsui 6 240.0 10-3/4
13 2 LEGION OF MERIT B Shinn · D J Hall 13 203.0 12-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CRAIG'S STAR2. CHANCHENG PRINCE+2L3. E STAR+2.25L4. TEMPEST EXPRESS+2.75L5. KA YING EXCELLENT+2.75L6. STAR OF YUEN LONG+3.75L7. BRIGHT KID+4L8. WIN WIN+4.25L9. FLYING VICTORY+5.75L10. VICTORY POWER+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick KA YING EXCELLENT (16.6%) finished 5th — the winner CRAIG'S STAR was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 KA YING EXCELLENT 16.6% 6.04 5
2 1 STAR OF YUEN LONG 12.9% 7.76 6
3 4 WIN WIN 12.7% 7.87 8
4 9 VICTORY POWER 9.4% 10.69 10
5 6 CRAIG'S STAR 8.4% 11.91 1
6 10 BRIGHT KID 7.7% 12.94 7
7 8 FLYING VICTORY 6.7% 15.01 9
8 3 SIMPLE ELEGANT 6.2% 16.21 11
9 11 CHANCHENG PRINCE 5.8% 17.25 2
10 5 TEMPEST EXPRESS 5.0% 19.95 4
11 7 E STAR 4.9% 20.23 3
12 2 LEGION OF MERIT 3.0% 33.38 13
13 13 ORIENTAL AMIGO 0.8% 127.77 12
KA YING EXCELLENTSTAR OF YUEN LONGWIN WINVICTORY POWERCRAIG'S STAR — wonBRIGHT KIDFLYING VICTORYSIMPLE ELEGANTCHANCHENG PRINCETEMPEST EXPRESSE STARLEGION OF MERITORIENTAL AMIGO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 53.5

PLACE

6 18

7 57.5

11 87

QUINELLA

6,11 1,244

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 219

6,11 288.5

7,11 858

FORECAST

6,11 2,143

TIERCE

6,11,7 35,168

TRIO

6,7,11 8,326

FIRST 4

5,6,7,11 12,847

QUARTET

6,11,7,5 326,707

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 24

A3

8TH DOUBLE

1/6 1,111

1/11 1,128