Sha Tin · 2020-10-11
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-11 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. MIGHTY VALOR, ridden by V Borges and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3, with INNO LEGEND second and CALIFORNIA LEVEE third. Victory came as the 3.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | MIGHTY VALOR 1.08.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 8 | 3.4 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | INNO LEGEND CP1 Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 9 | 8.3 | 3 |
| 3 | 1 | CALIFORNIA LEVEE B/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 6 | 7.8 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 8 | SMART CHARADE B/H/TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 7 | 3.8 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | FORTUNE MASTER K C Leung · K W Lui | K C Leung | K W Lui | 2 | 7.5 | 5 |
| 6 | 6 | WINNING STRIKES C Y Ho · P O'Sullivan | C Y Ho | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 5.7 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 5 | VALIANT ELEGANCE XB A Hamelin · D J Whyte | A Hamelin | D J Whyte | 5 | 12.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 8 | 7 | WINNING GENGHIS H/SR1 H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 1 | 109.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | PRAWN YEAH YEAH B/TT C Wong · R Gibson | C Wong | R Gibson | 3 | 55.0 | 12 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | MIGHTY VALOR | 26.2% | 3.81 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | VALIANT ELEGANCE | 18.0% | 5.57 | 7 |
| 3 | 1 | CALIFORNIA LEVEE | 14.6% | 6.86 | 3 |
| 4 | 8 | SMART CHARADE | 12.1% | 8.26 | 4 |
| 5 | 3 | FORTUNE MASTER | 10.5% | 9.50 | 5 |
| 6 | 4 | INNO LEGEND | 9.6% | 10.46 | 2 |
| 7 | 6 | WINNING STRIKES | 4.5% | 22.46 | 6 |
| 8 | 9 | PRAWN YEAH YEAH | 3.9% | 25.49 | 9 |
| 9 | 7 | WINNING GENGHIS | 0.7% | 147.75 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 34.5
PLACE
1 22.5
2 15
4 24.5
QUINELLA
2,4 161.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 44
1,4 88
2,4 59
FORECAST
2,4 322
TIERCE
2,4,1 1,336
TRIO
1,2,4 281
FIRST 4
1,2,4,8 172
QUARTET
2,4,1,8 4,187
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
1/2 70.5
1/4 26.5
3 PICK 1
A1 18
A3 —
A2 —