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Sha Tin · 2020-10-11

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 8 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-11 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BELUGA, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by 1-1/4, with SAM'S LOVE second and FORTUNE HERO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.87
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 BELUGA Closed strongly H 1.21.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall 1 1.7 1-1/4
2 6 SAM'S LOVE Closed strongly CP1/TT N Callan · C H Yip 5 28.0 1-1/4
3 9 FORTUNE HERO Led early B-/TT1 C Wong · R Gibson 4 148.0 1-3/4
4 7 SPEED FAY FAY Closed strongly B C Y Ho · T P Yung 8 4.4 1-3/4
5 5 SHANGHAI GRACE Closed strongly C Schofield · Y S Tsui 7 43.0 2
6 4 STUNNING IMPACT B A Badel · P O'Sullivan 2 4.9 2-1/4
7 3 SOLAR POWER K C Leung · L Ho 3 7.3 2-3/4
8 8 EURO LAGO CP/E H T Mo · C W Chang 6 195.0 6-3/4
2 GOLDIE FLANKER K H Chan · K L Man

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BELUGA2. SAM'S LOVE+1.25L3. FORTUNE HERO+1.75L4. SPEED FAY FAY+1.75L5. SHANGHAI GRACE+2L6. STUNNING IMPACT+2.25L7. SOLAR POWER+2.75L8. EURO LAGO+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick BELUGA (59.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 BELUGA 59.8% 1.67 1
2 4 STUNNING IMPACT 12.9% 7.74 6
3 7 SPEED FAY FAY 9.9% 10.13 4
4 3 SOLAR POWER 9.1% 10.95 7
5 6 SAM'S LOVE 4.0% 25.05 2
6 5 SHANGHAI GRACE 2.8% 35.62 5
7 9 FORTUNE HERO 0.8% 122.95 3
8 8 EURO LAGO 0.7% 151.83 8
BELUGA — wonSTUNNING IMPACTSPEED FAY FAYSOLAR POWERSAM'S LOVESHANGHAI GRACEFORTUNE HEROEURO LAGO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 17.5

PLACE

1 12

6 34

9 162.5

QUINELLA

1,6 168.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 49.5

1,9 322

6,9 954.5

FORECAST

1,6 190

TIERCE

1,6,9 5,268

TRIO

1,6,9 4,053

FIRST 4

1,6,7,9 1,232

QUARTET

1,6,9,7 16,632

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

2/1 107

2/6 172

3 PICK 1

A1 17.5

A3

A2