Sha Tin · 2020-10-11

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 9 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-11 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. APEX TOP, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by A T Millard, won by SH, with GOLDEN FOUR second and LUCKY QUALITY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite CASIMIRO finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.21.90

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	8	APEX TOP Closed strongly B 1.21.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · A T Millard	A Hamelin	A T Millard	1	118 lb	8.6	SH
2	1	GOLDEN FOUR Closed strongly P- C L Chau · C W Chang	C L Chau	C W Chang	9	123 lb	7.8	SH
3	3	LUCKY QUALITY Led early M Chadwick · C Fownes	M Chadwick	C Fownes	6	128 lb	10.0	N
4	6	BEST FOR YOU Closed strongly B H N Wong · Y S Tsui	H N Wong	Y S Tsui	4	119 lb	49.0	1/2
5	4	MALDIVES Closed strongly XB Z Purton · D J Hall	Z Purton	D J Hall	2	126 lb	3.3	3/4
6	7	THE DRIVE Closed strongly B/TT C Schofield · T P Yung	C Schofield	T P Yung	7	120 lb	12.0	3/4
7	5	CASIMIRO N Callan · P O'Sullivan	N Callan	P O'Sullivan	3	125 lb	2.8	1-1/2
8	2	CHAIRMAN LO E-/B2 C Y Ho · J Size	C Y Ho	J Size	5	132 lb	19.0	5-3/4
9	9	ROMAN IMPERO B K C Leung · C H Yip	K C Leung	C H Yip	8	116 lb	14.0	10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick MALDIVES (31.5%) finished 5th — the winner APEX TOP was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	MALDIVES	31.5%	3.18	5	3.3
2	5	CASIMIRO	16.6%	6.01	7	2.8
3	3	LUCKY QUALITY	15.7%	6.35	3	10.0
4	1	GOLDEN FOUR	11.7%	8.54	2	7.8
5	2	CHAIRMAN LO	8.1%	12.31	8	19.0
6	9	ROMAN IMPERO	4.8%	21.04	9	14.0
7	8	APEX TOP	4.3%	23.10	1	8.6
8	7	THE DRIVE	3.9%	25.80	6	12.0
9	6	BEST FOR YOU	3.4%	29.80	4	49.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 86.5

PLACE

1 20

3 29

8 25.5

QUINELLA

1,8 361.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 93.5

1,8 99

3,8 165.5

FORECAST

8,1 897

TIERCE

8,1,3 8,958

TRIO

1,3,8 1,121

FIRST 4

1,3,6,8 5,581

QUARTET

8,1,3,6 114,313

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 37

A2 —

4TH DOUBLE

7/1 61.5

7/8 655.5

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