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Sha Tin · 2020-10-11

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A+3 11 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-11 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. KA YING MASTER, ridden by V Borges and trained by T P Yung, won by HD, with SMART LEADER second and INNER FLAME third. The 2.7 favourite SUNSET WATCH finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.08.60
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 KA YING MASTER TT 1.08.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · T P Yung 4 12.0 HD
2 3 SMART LEADER B/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 9 23.0 HD
3 1 INNER FLAME XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 6 6.3 1
4 6 CZARSON CP M F Poon · P F Yiu 5 10.0 1-1/4
5 7 EQUALETTA BLITZ B1 A Badel · K H Ting 3 40.0 2
6 8 ALL FOR SOUTH B1 M Chadwick · F C Lor 1 5.2 3
7 4 SUNSET WATCH Z Purton · K W Lui 10 2.7 3-1/4
8 2 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE TT C Y Ho · D J Hall 7 9.1 5-1/2
9 11 VERY SWEET ORANGE V H N Wong · Y S Tsui 2 79.0 8-1/2
10 5 SMOOTHIES B/TT K C Leung · C S Shum 11 8.6 8-3/4
11 9 HAPPY WARRIOR CP-/H2 C Wong · C Fownes 8 61.0 10-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KA YING MASTER2. SMART LEADER+0.2L3. INNER FLAME+1L4. CZARSON+1.25L5. EQUALETTA BLITZ+2L6. ALL FOR SOUTH+3L7. SUNSET WATCH+3.25L8. QUADRUPLE DOUBLE+5.5L9. VERY SWEET ORANGE+8.5L10. SMOOTHIES+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SUNSET WATCH (14.9%) finished 7th — the winner KA YING MASTER was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 SUNSET WATCH 14.9% 6.70 7
2 1 INNER FLAME 14.0% 7.13 3
3 3 SMART LEADER 12.8% 7.83 2
4 5 SMOOTHIES 11.1% 8.99 10
5 6 CZARSON 10.1% 9.93 4
6 8 ALL FOR SOUTH 9.2% 10.89 6
7 2 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE 8.9% 11.29 8
8 10 KA YING MASTER 6.4% 15.63 1
9 7 EQUALETTA BLITZ 5.7% 17.66 5
10 9 HAPPY WARRIOR 4.2% 24.02 11
11 11 VERY SWEET ORANGE 2.8% 35.55 9
SUNSET WATCHINNER FLAMESMART LEADERSMOOTHIESCZARSONALL FOR SOUTHQUADRUPLE DOUBLEKA YING MASTER — wonEQUALETTA BLITZHAPPY WARRIORVERY SWEET ORANGE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 124.5

PLACE

1 20.5

3 45.5

10 34.5

QUINELLA

3,10 1,117

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 149

1,10 111

3,10 263.5

FORECAST

10,3 2,966

TIERCE

10,3,1 13,298

TRIO

1,3,10 1,951

FIRST 4

1,3,6,10 3,487

QUARTET

10,3,1,6 101,435

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,12/1,3,10 793,679

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 34

6TH DOUBLE

3/3 120

3/10 855.5