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Sha Tin · 2020-10-11

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course A+3 12 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-11 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. NATURAL STORM, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3/4, with BUNDLE OF ENERGY second and FULL POWER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.47.32
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 NATURAL STORM Closed strongly B 1.47.32 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · P F Yiu 6 3.4 3/4
2 12 BUNDLE OF ENERGY Closed strongly B M Chadwick · D J Hall 12 13.0 3/4
3 5 FULL POWER B/XB C L Chau · R Gibson 8 18.0 2-1/4
4 6 FAMILY LEADER B B Shinn · C Fownes 7 5.5 2-1/2
5 7 CROWN AVENUE V A Badel · C H Yip 2 5.7 3
6 8 EXALTATION Closed strongly V/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 1 4.4 4
7 4 SUPER FAST XB N Callan · K W Lui 3 12.0 4
8 2 DYNAMIC EAGLE Closed strongly B/H/XB/TT K C Leung · C S Shum 11 29.0 6
9 11 NUREMBERG B/H1/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz 9 160.0 10-3/4
10 10 STAR WIN Led early CP1 M F Poon · D J Whyte 4 92.0 12-1/4
11 1 BULLISH GLORY Closed strongly H A Hamelin · C W Chang 5 45.0 15-1/4
12 9 GOOD DAYS B/TT C Schofield · C S Shum 10 17.0 69-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NATURAL STORM2. BUNDLE OF ENERGY+0.75L3. FULL POWER+2.25L4. FAMILY LEADER+2.5L5. CROWN AVENUE+3L6. EXALTATION+4L7. SUPER FAST+4L8. DYNAMIC EAGLE+6L9. NUREMBERG+10.75L10. STAR WIN+12.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick EXALTATION (26.7%) finished 6th — the winner NATURAL STORM was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 EXALTATION 26.7% 3.75 6
2 3 NATURAL STORM 21.2% 4.73 1
3 7 CROWN AVENUE 12.9% 7.75 5
4 6 FAMILY LEADER 9.3% 10.79 4
5 12 BUNDLE OF ENERGY 7.4% 13.47 2
6 9 GOOD DAYS 6.1% 16.35 12
7 5 FULL POWER 4.4% 22.96 3
8 1 BULLISH GLORY 4.0% 24.94 11
9 4 SUPER FAST 3.5% 28.97 7
10 2 DYNAMIC EAGLE 2.3% 42.98 8
11 11 NUREMBERG 1.4% 71.88 9
12 10 STAR WIN 0.9% 109.33 10
EXALTATIONNATURAL STORM — wonCROWN AVENUEFAMILY LEADERBUNDLE OF ENERGYGOOD DAYSFULL POWERBULLISH GLORYSUPER FASTDYNAMIC EAGLENUREMBERGSTAR WIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 34

PLACE

3 14.5

5 43

12 38

QUINELLA

3,12 300.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 105.5

3,12 99

5,12 295

FORECAST

3,12 424

TIERCE

3,12,5 5,464

TRIO

3,5,12 1,508

FIRST 4

3,5,6,12 1,319

QUARTET

3,12,5,6 25,064

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 19.5

A2

5TH DOUBLE

8/3 503.5

8/12 375.5

TRIPLE TRIO

4,6,7/1,3,8/3,5,12 6,655,265

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4,6,7/1,3,8/Any Combination 4,649