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Sha Tin · 2020-10-11

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD 1600m Course A+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.35.10
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 NUNCHUKS Closed strongly TT 1.35.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes 3 5.6 1-1/2
2 0 YES WE CAN Closed strongly TT C Schofield · T P Yung 9 5.8 1-1/2
3 0 SMART THINKER TT Z Purton · C H Yip 12 6.4 1-3/4
4 0 MASTER ROMAN Closed strongly C L Chau · W Y So 7 11.0 2
5 0 GOLDEN GENERAL Closed strongly CP-/XB K C Leung · K H Ting 6 13.0 2-1/4
6 0 GREAT HARVEST B A Hamelin · K L Man 4 4.9 3-1/4
7 0 SHINEALOT Closed strongly A Badel · P O'Sullivan 8 7.7 4
8 0 SPEEDY DRAGON Closed strongly M Chadwick · D J Hall 10 24.0 5
9 0 LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT B/TT K H Chan · D A Hayes 14 31.0 6-3/4
10 0 SACRED TIMING B B Shinn · D A Hayes 2 30.0 7-3/4
11 0 BREAK RECORD CP/TT M F Poon · L Ho 1 25.0 8
12 0 CHARITYDREAM Led early TT H T Mo · C W Chang 13 33.0 9-1/4
13 0 FORTUNE BUDDY Closed strongly B H W Lai · T P Yung 11 131.0 11-3/4
14 0 PRIME TIME H-/B N Callan · Y S Tsui 5 38.0 13
— 0 WHO'S HORSE K C Leung · K H Ting — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-11 was Class 5 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. NUNCHUKS, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/2, with YES WE CAN second and SMART THINKER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.9 favourite GREAT HARVEST finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NUNCHUKS—2. YES WE CAN+1.5L3. SMART THINKER+1.75L4. MASTER ROMAN+2L5. GOLDEN GENERAL+2.25L6. GREAT HARVEST+3.25L7. SHINEALOT+4L8. SPEEDY DRAGON+5L9. LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT+6.75L10. SACRED TIMING+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SMART THINKER (20.7%) finished 3rd — the winner NUNCHUKS was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SMART THINKER 20.7% 4.82 3
2 0 YES WE CAN 13.2% 7.59 2
3 0 NUNCHUKS 12.8% 7.79 1
4 0 MASTER ROMAN 9.1% 10.95 4
5 0 SHINEALOT 8.0% 12.53 7
6 0 CHARITYDREAM 6.5% 15.49 12
7 0 SACRED TIMING 6.3% 15.88 10
8 0 GREAT HARVEST 5.8% 17.26 6
9 0 SPEEDY DRAGON 5.2% 19.32 8
10 0 LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT 3.4% 29.45 9
11 0 GOLDEN GENERAL 3.2% 31.45 5
12 0 BREAK RECORD 2.9% 34.54 11
13 0 FORTUNE BUDDY 1.5% 67.74 13
14 0 PRIME TIME 1.5% 67.76 14
SMART THINKERYES WE CANNUNCHUKS — wonMASTER ROMANSHINEALOTCHARITYDREAMSACRED TIMINGGREAT HARVESTSPEEDY DRAGONLAOS ENLIGHTENMENTGOLDEN GENERALBREAK RECORDFORTUNE BUDDYPRIME TIME

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 56

PLACE

4 20

6 24

7 22.5

QUINELLA

4,7 159

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 78.5

4,7 63.5

6,7 102

FORECAST

7,4 442

TIERCE

7,4,6 2,488

TRIO

4,6,7 409

FIRST 4

4,6,7,12 1,089

QUARTET

7,4,6,12 23,202

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,4/4,6,7 16,109

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 18

A3 —

3RD DOUBLE

2/4 41.5

2/7 232

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