Sha Tin · 2020-10-11
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-11 was Class 5 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. NUNCHUKS, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/2, with YES WE CAN second and SMART THINKER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.9 favourite GREAT HARVEST finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | NUNCHUKS Closed strongly TT 1.35.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 3 | 5.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | YES WE CAN Closed strongly TT C Schofield · T P Yung | C Schofield | T P Yung | 9 | 5.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 6 | SMART THINKER TT Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 12 | 6.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | MASTER ROMAN Closed strongly C L Chau · W Y So | C L Chau | W Y So | 7 | 11.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | GOLDEN GENERAL Closed strongly CP-/XB K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 6 | 13.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | GREAT HARVEST B A Hamelin · K L Man | A Hamelin | K L Man | 4 | 4.9 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 5 | SHINEALOT Closed strongly A Badel · P O'Sullivan | A Badel | P O'Sullivan | 8 | 7.7 | 4 |
| 8 | 10 | SPEEDY DRAGON Closed strongly M Chadwick · D J Hall | M Chadwick | D J Hall | 10 | 24.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 2 | LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT B/TT K H Chan · D A Hayes | K H Chan | D A Hayes | 14 | 31.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 8 | SACRED TIMING B B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 2 | 30.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 1 | BREAK RECORD CP/TT M F Poon · L Ho | M F Poon | L Ho | 1 | 25.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 13 | CHARITYDREAM Led early TT H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 13 | 33.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 13 | 14 | FORTUNE BUDDY Closed strongly B H W Lai · T P Yung | H W Lai | T P Yung | 11 | 131.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 14 | 3 | PRIME TIME H-/B N Callan · Y S Tsui | N Callan | Y S Tsui | 5 | 38.0 | 13 |
| — | 0 | WHO'S HORSE K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | SMART THINKER | 20.7% | 4.82 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | YES WE CAN | 13.2% | 7.59 | 2 |
| 3 | 7 | NUNCHUKS | 12.8% | 7.79 | 1 |
| 4 | 12 | MASTER ROMAN | 9.1% | 10.95 | 4 |
| 5 | 5 | SHINEALOT | 8.0% | 12.53 | 7 |
| 6 | 13 | CHARITYDREAM | 6.5% | 15.49 | 12 |
| 7 | 8 | SACRED TIMING | 6.3% | 15.88 | 10 |
| 8 | 11 | GREAT HARVEST | 5.8% | 17.26 | 6 |
| 9 | 10 | SPEEDY DRAGON | 5.2% | 19.32 | 8 |
| 10 | 2 | LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT | 3.4% | 29.45 | 9 |
| 11 | 9 | GOLDEN GENERAL | 3.2% | 31.45 | 5 |
| 12 | 1 | BREAK RECORD | 2.9% | 34.54 | 11 |
| 13 | 14 | FORTUNE BUDDY | 1.5% | 67.74 | 13 |
| 14 | 3 | PRIME TIME | 1.5% | 67.76 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 56
PLACE
4 20
6 24
7 22.5
QUINELLA
4,7 159
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 78.5
4,7 63.5
6,7 102
FORECAST
7,4 442
TIERCE
7,4,6 2,488
TRIO
4,6,7 409
FIRST 4
4,6,7,12 1,089
QUARTET
7,4,6,12 23,202
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,4/4,6,7 16,109
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 18
3RD DOUBLE
2/4 41.5
2/7 232