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Sha Tin · 2020-10-24

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.44
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 MONEYMORE Closed strongly CP2 1.22.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · D A Hayes 4 8.6 3/4
2 0 KA FORTUNE Closed strongly V-/XB- M F Poon · D J Hall 1 3.9 3/4
3 0 GOLDEN GENERAL Closed strongly XB K Teetan · K H Ting 13 9.9 1-1/4
4 0 GALAXY EMPEROR CP/H/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 2 2.8 2
5 0 BRAVERY AND POWER Closed strongly TT H N Wong · W Y So 3 38.0 3
6 0 LUCKY GUY Closed strongly TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 7 20.0 3-1/2
7 0 HOME WIN CP-/B2 B Shinn · C W Chang 6 21.0 3-3/4
8 0 FOR FUN'S SAKE H A Badel · C Fownes 8 6.9 4-3/4
9 0 FLYING SPIRIT XB/B1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 11 34.0 5-3/4
10 0 JOYFUL CHEERS Led early H-/B1/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 14 22.0 5-3/4
11 0 BREAK RECORD Closed strongly CP/TT V Borges · L Ho 5 95.0 7-1/4
12 0 XIANG LAN QI K C Leung · K L Man 9 152.0 8-3/4
13 0 READY CONQUEROR Closed strongly T Piccone · Y S Tsui 12 68.0 11-3/4
14 0 KA YING BRILLIANCE H/P/XB/TT1 H T Mo · T P Yung 10 90.0 12-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-24 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. MONEYMORE, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by D A Hayes, won by 3/4, with KA FORTUNE second and GOLDEN GENERAL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite GALAXY EMPEROR finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MONEYMORE—2. KA FORTUNE+0.75L3. GOLDEN GENERAL+1.25L4. GALAXY EMPEROR+2L5. BRAVERY AND POWER+3L6. LUCKY GUY+3.5L7. HOME WIN+3.75L8. FOR FUN'S SAKE+4.75L9. FLYING SPIRIT+5.75L10. JOYFUL CHEERS+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick GALAXY EMPEROR (38.8%) finished 4th — the winner MONEYMORE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 GALAXY EMPEROR 38.8% 2.58 4
2 0 MONEYMORE 11.9% 8.40 1
3 0 FOR FUN'S SAKE 10.5% 9.48 8
4 0 HOME WIN 6.7% 15.03 7
5 0 KA FORTUNE 6.3% 15.85 2
6 0 BREAK RECORD 4.5% 22.04 11
7 0 GOLDEN GENERAL 4.5% 22.31 3
8 0 LUCKY GUY 3.7% 26.98 6
9 0 JOYFUL CHEERS 3.1% 32.09 10
10 0 READY CONQUEROR 3.1% 32.17 13
11 0 BRAVERY AND POWER 2.0% 50.70 5
12 0 FLYING SPIRIT 1.7% 57.96 9
13 0 KA YING BRILLIANCE 1.7% 58.65 14
14 0 XIANG LAN QI 1.5% 68.04 12
GALAXY EMPERORMONEYMORE — wonFOR FUN'S SAKEHOME WINKA FORTUNEBREAK RECORDGOLDEN GENERALLUCKY GUYJOYFUL CHEERSREADY CONQUERORBRAVERY AND POWERFLYING SPIRITKA YING BRILLIANCEXIANG LAN QI

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 86

PLACE

4 16

12 25

14 26

QUINELLA

4,12 175

QUINELLA PLACE

4,12 54

4,14 56

12,14 128

FORECAST

12,4 444

TIERCE

12,4,14 3,249

TRIO

4,12,14 448

FIRST 4

4,10,12,14 252

QUARTET

12,4,14,10 10,026

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 —

A2 21