Sha Tin · 2020-10-24
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-24 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. BALTIC SUCCESS, ridden by C L Chau and trained by C S Shum, won by 1/2, with SPARKLING KNIGHT second and GOOD VIEW CLARICO third. The 2.4 favourite GOOD VIEW CLARICO finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | BALTIC SUCCESS TT 0.56.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 4 | 22.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 14 | SPARKLING KNIGHT H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 2 | 4.2 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 9 | GOOD VIEW CLARICO XB Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 6 | 2.4 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 11 | FLYING GENIUS B1/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 5 | 20.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | LOBO'S LEGEND SR- N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 8 | 12.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | MERIDIAN GENIUS A Badel · A T Millard | A Badel | A T Millard | 1 | 18.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | SEVEN HEAVENS V1/TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 10 | 6.8 | 2 |
| 8 | 13 | LORIZ M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 3 | 98.0 | 2 |
| 9 | 12 | JOYFUL HEART CP/TT K H Chan · F C Lor | K H Chan | F C Lor | 9 | 67.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | SEA OF LIFE H N Wong · K W Lui | H N Wong | K W Lui | 11 | 93.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 11 | 6 | WAR OF COURAGE CP- T Piccone · K L Man | T Piccone | K L Man | 13 | 61.0 | 4 |
| 12 | 2 | MAGIC LEGEND H K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 7 | 34.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 13 | 4 | CRUISING A Hamelin · T P Yung | A Hamelin | T P Yung | 12 | 11.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 14 | 8 | BALTIC WHISPER TT C Wong · C S Shum | C Wong | C S Shum | 14 | 74.0 | 6 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | GOOD VIEW CLARICO | 34.8% | 2.87 | 3 |
| 2 | 10 | SEVEN HEAVENS | 12.0% | 8.32 | 7 |
| 3 | 5 | MERIDIAN GENIUS | 8.7% | 11.43 | 6 |
| 4 | 4 | CRUISING | 8.2% | 12.21 | 13 |
| 5 | 3 | BALTIC SUCCESS | 5.8% | 17.11 | 1 |
| 6 | 11 | FLYING GENIUS | 5.5% | 18.26 | 4 |
| 7 | 1 | LOBO'S LEGEND | 5.3% | 18.84 | 5 |
| 8 | 14 | SPARKLING KNIGHT | 5.0% | 19.81 | 2 |
| 9 | 6 | WAR OF COURAGE | 4.2% | 23.61 | 11 |
| 10 | 12 | JOYFUL HEART | 3.5% | 28.95 | 9 |
| 11 | 13 | LORIZ | 2.7% | 37.03 | 8 |
| 12 | 2 | MAGIC LEGEND | 1.5% | 65.40 | 12 |
| 13 | 7 | SEA OF LIFE | 1.3% | 75.69 | 10 |
| 14 | 8 | BALTIC WHISPER | 1.3% | 75.88 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 222
PLACE
3 46.5
9 13
14 17.5
QUINELLA
3,14 467.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,9 77
3,14 152.5
9,14 30.5
FORECAST
3,14 1,292
TIERCE
3,14,9 5,816
TRIO
3,9,14 397
FIRST 4
3,9,11,14 1,659
QUARTET
3,14,9,11 79,743
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 30.5
A1 —
7TH DOUBLE
1/3 1,315
1/14 42.5