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Sha Tin · 2020-10-24

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course C 13 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-24 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY ANGEL, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/2, with CHEERFUL STAR second and JIMMU third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.47.62
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 BEAUTY ANGEL Wire to wire TT 1.47.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz 2 2.8 1-1/2
2 9 CHEERFUL STAR Closed strongly CP/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 9 8.3 1-1/2
3 8 JIMMU Closed strongly SR J Moreira · Y S Tsui 7 5.6 2
4 7 FAMILY LEADER B C Wong · C Fownes 13 8.1 2
5 13 SMART COUSIN M F Poon · C H Yip 10 87.0 3
6 5 FULL POWER B/XB C L Chau · R Gibson 3 6.7 3-1/2
7 6 STARSHIP Closed strongly B N Callan · P O'Sullivan 11 31.0 5
8 4 DYNAMIC EAGLE Closed strongly B/H/XB/TT V Borges · C S Shum 12 49.0 5-1/2
9 10 BUNDLE OF ENERGY B A Badel · D J Hall 5 6.0 6-1/2
10 11 SALTO OLIMPICO B H N Wong · D J Hall 4 166.0 6-1/2
11 12 DRAGON COMMANDER H H T Mo · Y S Tsui 1 44.0 7-3/4
12 1 VOLPINO H/XB/TT B Shinn · T P Yung 6 52.0 8
13 3 BULLISH GLORY H M L Yeung · C W Chang 8 116.0 11-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY ANGEL2. CHEERFUL STAR+1.5L3. JIMMU+2L4. FAMILY LEADER+2L5. SMART COUSIN+3L6. FULL POWER+3.5L7. STARSHIP+5L8. DYNAMIC EAGLE+5.5L9. BUNDLE OF ENERGY+6.5L10. SALTO OLIMPICO+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick BEAUTY ANGEL (23.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 BEAUTY ANGEL 23.8% 4.20 1
2 8 JIMMU 23.4% 4.27 3
3 10 BUNDLE OF ENERGY 12.3% 8.13 9
4 5 FULL POWER 10.4% 9.60 6
5 7 FAMILY LEADER 7.2% 13.95 4
6 9 CHEERFUL STAR 5.2% 19.15 2
7 12 DRAGON COMMANDER 4.7% 21.10 11
8 6 STARSHIP 4.3% 23.43 7
9 4 DYNAMIC EAGLE 3.6% 27.62 8
10 1 VOLPINO 2.3% 43.85 12
11 13 SMART COUSIN 0.9% 106.60 5
12 3 BULLISH GLORY 0.9% 107.99 13
13 11 SALTO OLIMPICO 0.9% 108.75 10
BEAUTY ANGEL — wonJIMMUBUNDLE OF ENERGYFULL POWERFAMILY LEADERCHEERFUL STARDRAGON COMMANDERSTARSHIPDYNAMIC EAGLEVOLPINOSMART COUSINBULLISH GLORYSALTO OLIMPICO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 28

PLACE

2 15.5

8 17.5

9 28

QUINELLA

2,9 165.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 36.5

2,9 71

8,9 97

FORECAST

2,9 263

TIERCE

2,9,8 1,171

TRIO

2,8,9 299

FIRST 4

2,7,8,9 345

QUARTET

2,9,8,7 6,005

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 18.5

A3

A2

4TH DOUBLE

4/2 279

4/9 170