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Sha Tin · 2020-10-24

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-24 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. COURIER WONDER, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 5-1/4, with EVERYONE'S DELIGHT second and SUPER MISSION third. The 1.4 favourite EVERYONE'S DELIGHT finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.08.85
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 COURIER WONDER 1.08.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 3 6.7 5-1/4
2 1 EVERYONE'S DELIGHT CP Z Purton · F C Lor 1 1.4 5-1/4
3 9 SUPER MISSION V Borges · P F Yiu 4 7.2 6-3/4
4 10 BRAVE POWER CP/TT K C Leung · A S Cruz 9 16.0 9
5 3 COBY OPPA M F Poon · D J Hall 7 171.0 9-3/4
6 7 PACKING APEX K Teetan · D A Hayes 6 27.0 9-3/4
7 6 HARD PROMISE TT C L Chau · T P Yung 8 10.0 9-3/4
8 2 MAGIC SUPREME H-/XB/CP2/TT K H Chan · K L Man 12 94.0 10
9 11 SKY TREASURE H C Wong · Y S Tsui 5 77.0 13-1/2
10 5 HAPPY RUBY A Badel · A T Millard 11 58.0 14
11 8 RUNNING GUY H T Mo · C W Chang 2 286.0 14-1/2
12 12 WIN FOR YOUTH B1 M L Yeung · K H Ting 10 299.0 17-1/2
0 AION · D A Hayes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. COURIER WONDER2. EVERYONE'S DELIGHT+5.25L3. SUPER MISSION+6.75L4. BRAVE POWER+9L5. COBY OPPA+9.75L6. PACKING APEX+9.75L7. HARD PROMISE+9.75L8. MAGIC SUPREME+10L9. SKY TREASURE+13.5L10. HAPPY RUBY+14L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick EVERYONE'S DELIGHT (38.7%) finished 2nd — the winner COURIER WONDER was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 EVERYONE'S DELIGHT 38.7% 2.58 2
2 4 COURIER WONDER 21.8% 4.58 1
3 9 SUPER MISSION 13.8% 7.26 3
4 7 PACKING APEX 6.2% 16.22 6
5 6 HARD PROMISE 5.3% 18.81 7
6 10 BRAVE POWER 4.6% 21.61 4
7 5 HAPPY RUBY 2.8% 36.09 10
8 2 MAGIC SUPREME 2.5% 39.26 8
9 11 SKY TREASURE 2.4% 42.41 9
10 3 COBY OPPA 0.9% 107.61 5
11 12 WIN FOR YOUTH 0.6% 161.86 12
12 8 RUNNING GUY 0.4% 276.40 11
EVERYONE'S DELIGHTCOURIER WONDER — wonSUPER MISSIONPACKING APEXHARD PROMISEBRAVE POWERHAPPY RUBYMAGIC SUPREMESKY TREASURECOBY OPPAWIN FOR YOUTHRUNNING GUY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 67.5

PLACE

1 10.5

4 16

9 15

QUINELLA

1,4 42

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 20.5

1,9 19.5

4,9 39.5

FORECAST

4,1 195

TIERCE

4,1,9 414

TRIO

1,4,9 41

FIRST 4

1,4,9,10 118

QUARTET

4,1,9,10 2,825

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,6,13/1,4,9 2,406

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 26

3RD DOUBLE

13/1 27

13/4 513.5