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Sha Tin · 2020-10-24

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-24 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. THE FULL BLOOM, ridden by M F Poon and trained by C H Yip, won by 3/4, with RED BRICK FIGHTER second and ADONIS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite SHANGHAI DRAGON finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.22.27
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 THE FULL BLOOM Closed strongly V 1.22.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · C H Yip 9 9.1 3/4
2 6 RED BRICK FIGHTER Closed strongly B J Moreira · D J Hall 14 5.8 3/4
3 3 ADONIS Closed strongly CP/H K Teetan · D J Whyte 4 6.9 1-1/4
4 11 BLAZING PARTNERS Closed strongly B C L Chau · D E Ferraris 12 9.4 1-3/4
5 1 VIVA COUNCIL V- H T Mo · L Ho 1 31.0 2
6 7 SMILING SUCCESS B/TT A Badel · K H Ting 5 7.7 3
7 14 FAIRY FLOSS B- K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 6 43.0 3-1/2
8 2 VITAL SPRING Closed strongly CP/TT T Piccone · K W Lui 8 13.0 4
9 8 SHANGHAI DRAGON B Z Purton · T P Yung 7 4.1 5-3/4
10 12 GREAT HARVEST B N Callan · K L Man 10 6.5 9-1/2
11 10 MASTERWORK Led early B-/H2 H N Wong · Y S Tsui 13 149.0 10-1/4
12 4 PERFECT HARMONY Closed strongly B/H/TT B Shinn · A S Cruz 2 118.0 12-1/2
13 9 COOL ACE CP-/B2 C Wong · C W Chang 11 125.0 16
14 5 PLANET FLYER B M L Yeung · W Y So 3 249.0 26-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THE FULL BLOOM2. RED BRICK FIGHTER+0.75L3. ADONIS+1.25L4. BLAZING PARTNERS+1.75L5. VIVA COUNCIL+2L6. SMILING SUCCESS+3L7. FAIRY FLOSS+3.5L8. VITAL SPRING+4L9. SHANGHAI DRAGON+5.75L10. GREAT HARVEST+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick RED BRICK FIGHTER (18.7%) finished 2nd — the winner THE FULL BLOOM was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 RED BRICK FIGHTER 18.7% 5.35 2
2 3 ADONIS 17.5% 5.71 3
3 8 SHANGHAI DRAGON 17.4% 5.74 9
4 2 VITAL SPRING 10.6% 9.41 8
5 11 BLAZING PARTNERS 8.1% 12.32 4
6 7 SMILING SUCCESS 7.7% 13.00 6
7 12 GREAT HARVEST 5.9% 16.85 10
8 9 COOL ACE 3.2% 31.22 13
9 13 THE FULL BLOOM 3.0% 33.44 1
10 1 VIVA COUNCIL 2.6% 38.27 5
11 14 FAIRY FLOSS 1.9% 51.49 7
12 4 PERFECT HARMONY 1.3% 76.30 12
13 10 MASTERWORK 1.2% 82.56 11
14 5 PLANET FLYER 0.7% 136.08 14
RED BRICK FIGHTERADONISSHANGHAI DRAGONVITAL SPRINGBLAZING PARTNERSSMILING SUCCESSGREAT HARVESTCOOL ACETHE FULL BLOOM — wonVIVA COUNCILFAIRY FLOSSPERFECT HARMONYMASTERWORKPLANET FLYER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 91

PLACE

3 21

6 19.5

13 23.5

QUINELLA

6,13 258

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 78

3,13 84

6,13 87.5

FORECAST

13,6 504

TIERCE

13,6,3 2,648

TRIO

3,6,13 440

FIRST 4

3,6,11,13 432

QUARTET

13,6,3,11 10,967

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

10/6 77

10/13 444

3 PICK 1

A2 28.5

A3

A1