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Sha Tin · 2020-10-24

Race 10

Class 2 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.20.79
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 MIGHTY GIANT Closed strongly B 1.20.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P F Yiu 10 4.0 N
2 0 BALLISTIC KING Closed strongly N Callan · K H Ting 4 20.0 N
3 0 SKY FIELD Closed strongly TT J Moreira · C Fownes 2 2.0 1/2
4 0 LUCKY EXPRESS Closed strongly E/TT K Teetan · J Size 3 6.2 3/4
5 0 WATER DIVINER Closed strongly B/H/TT T Piccone · K W Lui 5 27.0 2
6 0 BEAUTY SMILE B1/TT V Borges · A S Cruz 13 61.0 2-3/4
7 0 MAXIMUS Closed strongly SR1 A Badel · A T Millard 8 14.0 2-3/4
8 0 INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · W Y So 11 125.0 4-3/4
9 0 ASSIMILATE Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting 9 31.0 5
10 0 BEAUTY LEGACY E K C Leung · J Size 12 34.0 5-1/2
11 0 RIGHT CHOICE B K H Chan · F C Lor 14 187.0 7-1/4
12 0 GENERAL'S DELIGHT CP/XB/TT1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 7 19.0 7-1/4
13 0 MAGNIFICENT H T Mo · L Ho 1 149.0 9
14 0 BEAUTY AMIGO Led early B M L Yeung · D A Hayes 6 222.0 11-1/4
— 0 CIRCUIT GLORY K C Leung · A S Cruz — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-24 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. MIGHTY GIANT, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with BALLISTIC KING second and SKY FIELD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.0 favourite SKY FIELD finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MIGHTY GIANT—2. BALLISTIC KING+0.05L3. SKY FIELD+0.5L4. LUCKY EXPRESS+0.75L5. WATER DIVINER+2L6. BEAUTY SMILE+2.75L7. MAXIMUS+2.75L8. INVINCIBLE MISSILE+4.75L9. ASSIMILATE+5L10. BEAUTY LEGACY+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SKY FIELD (35.4%) finished 3rd — the winner MIGHTY GIANT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SKY FIELD 35.4% 2.82 3
2 0 MIGHTY GIANT 23.8% 4.20 1
3 0 LUCKY EXPRESS 15.9% 6.28 4
4 0 GENERAL'S DELIGHT 5.0% 20.11 12
5 0 BEAUTY SMILE 3.1% 32.18 6
6 0 BALLISTIC KING 3.0% 33.49 2
7 0 ASSIMILATE 2.4% 40.95 9
8 0 RIGHT CHOICE 2.4% 41.65 11
9 0 BEAUTY LEGACY 1.9% 51.43 10
10 0 INVINCIBLE MISSILE 1.9% 52.27 8
11 0 MAGNIFICENT 1.8% 56.24 13
12 0 WATER DIVINER 1.6% 63.96 5
13 0 MAXIMUS 1.1% 89.26 7
14 0 BEAUTY AMIGO 0.6% 160.62 14
SKY FIELDMIGHTY GIANT — wonLUCKY EXPRESSGENERAL'S DELIGHTBEAUTY SMILEBALLISTIC KINGASSIMILATERIGHT CHOICEBEAUTY LEGACYINVINCIBLE MISSILEMAGNIFICENTWATER DIVINERMAXIMUSBEAUTY AMIGO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 40.5

PLACE

2 14.5

4 37

6 12

QUINELLA

2,4 258.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 79

2,6 18.5

4,6 60

FORECAST

2,4 348

TIERCE

2,4,6 885

TRIO

2,4,6 145

FIRST 4

2,4,5,6 120

QUARTET

2,4,6,5 3,072

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 13.5

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,9/2,4,6 4,971

9TH DOUBLE

3/2 151.5

3/4 186

SIX UP

2,9/6,12/1,6/3,14/3,9/2,4 10,954

2/12/1/3/3/2 1,427,291

1 [Z Purton] —

TREBLE

3/3/2 4,557

3/3/4 3,894