Sha Tin · 2020-10-24

Race 10

Class 2 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-24 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. MIGHTY GIANT, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with BALLISTIC KING second and SKY FIELD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.0 favourite SKY FIELD finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.20.79

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	MIGHTY GIANT Closed strongly B 1.20.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P F Yiu	Z Purton	P F Yiu	10	129 lb	4.0	N
2	4	BALLISTIC KING Closed strongly N Callan · K H Ting	N Callan	K H Ting	4	125 lb	20.0	N
3	6	SKY FIELD Closed strongly TT J Moreira · C Fownes	J Moreira	C Fownes	2	123 lb	2.0	1/2
4	5	LUCKY EXPRESS Closed strongly E/TT K Teetan · J Size	K Teetan	J Size	3	125 lb	6.2	3/4
5	9	WATER DIVINER Closed strongly B/H/TT T Piccone · K W Lui	T Piccone	K W Lui	5	121 lb	27.0	2
6	14	BEAUTY SMILE B1/TT V Borges · A S Cruz	V Borges	A S Cruz	13	116 lb	61.0	2-3/4
7	12	MAXIMUS Closed strongly SR1 A Badel · A T Millard	A Badel	A T Millard	8	117 lb	14.0	2-3/4
8	10	INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · W Y So	M F Poon	W Y So	11	118 lb	125.0	4-3/4
9	3	ASSIMILATE Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting	A Hamelin	K H Ting	9	125 lb	31.0	5
10	7	BEAUTY LEGACY E K C Leung · J Size	K C Leung	J Size	12	133 lb	34.0	5-1/2
11	13	RIGHT CHOICE B K H Chan · F C Lor	K H Chan	F C Lor	14	110 lb	187.0	7-1/4
12	1	GENERAL'S DELIGHT CP/XB/TT1 C L Chau · D J Whyte	C L Chau	D J Whyte	7	119 lb	19.0	7-1/4
13	8	MAGNIFICENT H T Mo · L Ho	H T Mo	L Ho	1	119 lb	149.0	9
14	11	BEAUTY AMIGO Led early B M L Yeung · D A Hayes	M L Yeung	D A Hayes	6	119 lb	222.0	11-1/4
—	0	CIRCUIT GLORY K C Leung · A S Cruz	K C Leung	A S Cruz	—	122 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick SKY FIELD (35.4%) finished 3rd — the winner MIGHTY GIANT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	6	SKY FIELD	35.4%	2.82	3	2.0
2	2	MIGHTY GIANT	23.8%	4.20	1	4.0
3	5	LUCKY EXPRESS	15.9%	6.28	4	6.2
4	1	GENERAL'S DELIGHT	5.0%	20.11	12	19.0
5	14	BEAUTY SMILE	3.1%	32.18	6	61.0
6	4	BALLISTIC KING	3.0%	33.49	2	20.0
7	3	ASSIMILATE	2.4%	40.95	9	31.0
8	13	RIGHT CHOICE	2.4%	41.65	11	187.0
9	7	BEAUTY LEGACY	1.9%	51.43	10	34.0
10	10	INVINCIBLE MISSILE	1.9%	52.27	8	125.0
11	8	MAGNIFICENT	1.8%	56.24	13	149.0
12	9	WATER DIVINER	1.6%	63.96	5	27.0
13	12	MAXIMUS	1.1%	89.26	7	14.0
14	11	BEAUTY AMIGO	0.6%	160.62	14	222.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 40.5

PLACE

2 14.5

4 37

6 12

QUINELLA

2,4 258.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 79

2,6 18.5

4,6 60

FORECAST

2,4 348

TIERCE

2,4,6 885

TRIO

2,4,6 145

FIRST 4

2,4,5,6 120

QUARTET

2,4,6,5 3,072

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 13.5

A2 —

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,9/2,4,6 4,971

9TH DOUBLE

3/2 151.5

3/4 186

SIX UP

2,9/6,12/1,6/3,14/3,9/2,4 10,954

2/12/1/3/3/2 1,427,291

1 [Z Purton] —

TREBLE

3/3/2 4,557

3/3/4 3,894

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