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Sha Tin · 2020-10-24

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-24 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LOCKHEED, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by 3/4, with KEEP YOU WARM second and BIG FORTUNE third. The 3.7 favourite BIZ POWER finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.08.61
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 LOCKHEED B/TT 1.08.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum 7 5.4 3/4
2 9 KEEP YOU WARM B/XB A Badel · K W Lui 12 11.0 3/4
3 4 BIG FORTUNE B/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 4 5.0 1-1/4
4 6 BIZ POWER B J Moreira · P O'Sullivan 1 3.7 1-1/4
5 12 ULTIMATE GLORY V H W Lai · K L Man 3 42.0 2-1/4
6 7 PING HAI BRAVO E V Borges · J Size 2 6.4 2-3/4
7 8 WINNING BREW K Teetan · F C Lor 8 4.5 3-1/2
8 5 CALIFORNIA GUNGHO B/TT K C Leung · A S Cruz 11 57.0 4-1/2
9 10 TELECOM PUMA SR/TT C Wong · C Fownes 9 75.0 8-1/4
10 11 KING'S HORN B H T Mo · L Ho 6 302.0 10-3/4
11 1 KA YING LEGEND TT B Shinn · T P Yung 10 101.0 11
12 2 FANTASTIC SHOW B A Hamelin · Y S Tsui 5 38.0 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LOCKHEED2. KEEP YOU WARM+0.75L3. BIG FORTUNE+1.25L4. BIZ POWER+1.25L5. ULTIMATE GLORY+2.25L6. PING HAI BRAVO+2.75L7. WINNING BREW+3.5L8. CALIFORNIA GUNGHO+4.5L9. TELECOM PUMA+8.25L10. KING'S HORN+10.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick WINNING BREW (25.2%) finished 7th — the winner LOCKHEED was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 WINNING BREW 25.2% 3.98 7
2 6 BIZ POWER 24.1% 4.16 4
3 4 BIG FORTUNE 13.4% 7.44 3
4 7 PING HAI BRAVO 11.0% 9.08 6
5 3 LOCKHEED 7.3% 13.79 1
6 2 FANTASTIC SHOW 5.1% 19.75 12
7 9 KEEP YOU WARM 4.3% 23.23 2
8 10 TELECOM PUMA 3.6% 27.82 9
9 5 CALIFORNIA GUNGHO 2.5% 39.39 8
10 12 ULTIMATE GLORY 1.9% 52.27 5
11 1 KA YING LEGEND 1.2% 80.19 11
12 11 KING'S HORN 0.4% 236.54 10
WINNING BREWBIZ POWERBIG FORTUNEPING HAI BRAVOLOCKHEED — wonFANTASTIC SHOWKEEP YOU WARMTELECOM PUMACALIFORNIA GUNGHOULTIMATE GLORYKA YING LEGENDKING'S HORN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 54.5

PLACE

3 17.5

4 17

9 37.5

QUINELLA

3,9 310.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 45.5

3,9 110.5

4,9 93.5

FORECAST

3,9 539

TIERCE

3,9,4 2,547

TRIO

3,4,9 441

FIRST 4

3,4,6,9 261

QUARTET

3,9,4,6 7,259

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 22

8TH DOUBLE

3/3 1,673.5

3/9 496