Sha Tin · 2020-10-24

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-24 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SUNNY STAR, ridden by C L Chau and trained by K W Lui, won by 3/4, with MIGHTY POWER second and SO AWESOME third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite MIGHTY POWER finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.67

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	SUNNY STAR Closed strongly 1.21.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · K W Lui	C L Chau	K W Lui	3	123 lb	6.4	3/4
2	6	MIGHTY POWER Closed strongly BO Z Purton · D A Hayes	Z Purton	D A Hayes	4	126 lb	2.6	3/4
3	10	SO AWESOME Closed strongly J Moreira · Y S Tsui	J Moreira	Y S Tsui	6	125 lb	5.4	1
4	3	JUDY'S STAR Closed strongly A Badel · P O'Sullivan	A Badel	P O'Sullivan	2	130 lb	7.1	1-3/4
5	8	ROBOT WARRIOR Closed strongly V T Piccone · T P Yung	T Piccone	T P Yung	8	125 lb	96.0	2
6	13	EVEN KEEL Closed strongly B/XB C Wong · A T Millard	C Wong	A T Millard	11	109 lb	152.0	2-3/4
7	11	ALL FOR ST PAUL'S B K Teetan · F C Lor	K Teetan	F C Lor	5	121 lb	5.8	2-3/4
8	12	VIGOR CHAMP B M F Poon · K H Ting	M F Poon	K H Ting	1	118 lb	17.0	2-3/4
9	2	CALIFORNIA LEVEE B/H/TT B Shinn · A S Cruz	B Shinn	A S Cruz	13	131 lb	19.0	3-1/2
10	4	CHAIRMAN LO Closed strongly B N Callan · J Size	N Callan	J Size	12	129 lb	77.0	5-1/4
11	14	FORTUNE HERO Led early TT V Borges · R Gibson	V Borges	R Gibson	14	113 lb	80.0	5-1/2
12	7	PRETTY CUTE Closed strongly TT K C Leung · C H Yip	K C Leung	C H Yip	9	125 lb	228.0	6-1/4
13	9	SMART HUNTER XB M L Yeung · D J Whyte	M L Yeung	D J Whyte	10	125 lb	332.0	6-1/4
14	5	CHAMP PATROL H K H Chan · C Fownes	K H Chan	C Fownes	7	120 lb	42.0	9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick SO AWESOME (22.1%) finished 3rd — the winner SUNNY STAR was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	10	SO AWESOME	22.1%	4.53	3	5.4
2	11	ALL FOR ST PAUL'S	20.9%	4.78	7	5.8
3	6	MIGHTY POWER	14.6%	6.84	2	2.6
4	3	JUDY'S STAR	8.7%	11.46	4	7.1
5	1	SUNNY STAR	6.7%	14.82	1	6.4
6	14	FORTUNE HERO	5.6%	17.89	11	80.0
7	12	VIGOR CHAMP	4.9%	20.28	8	17.0
8	5	CHAMP PATROL	4.6%	21.66	14	42.0
9	2	CALIFORNIA LEVEE	3.6%	27.44	9	19.0
10	8	ROBOT WARRIOR	2.7%	36.42	5	96.0
11	4	CHAIRMAN LO	2.3%	43.85	10	77.0
12	13	EVEN KEEL	2.3%	43.95	6	152.0
13	9	SMART HUNTER	0.4%	222.42	13	332.0
14	7	PRETTY CUTE	0.4%	239.10	12	228.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 64

PLACE

1 20

6 13.5

10 19

QUINELLA

1,6 99

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 40.5

1,10 77

6,10 29.5

FORECAST

1,6 313

TIERCE

1,6,10 956

TRIO

1,6,10 171

FIRST 4

1,3,6,10 193

QUARTET

1,6,10,3 4,699

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,6,12/1,6,10 139,389

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 18.5

6TH DOUBLE

12/1 690.5

12/6 51

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