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Sha Tin · 2020-10-24

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SUNNY STAR Closed strongly 1.21.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · K W Lui 3 6.4 3/4
2 0 MIGHTY POWER Closed strongly BO Z Purton · D A Hayes 4 2.6 3/4
3 0 SO AWESOME Closed strongly J Moreira · Y S Tsui 6 5.4 1
4 0 JUDY'S STAR Closed strongly A Badel · P O'Sullivan 2 7.1 1-3/4
5 0 ROBOT WARRIOR Closed strongly V T Piccone · T P Yung 8 96.0 2
6 0 EVEN KEEL Closed strongly B/XB C Wong · A T Millard 11 152.0 2-3/4
7 0 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S B K Teetan · F C Lor 5 5.8 2-3/4
8 0 VIGOR CHAMP B M F Poon · K H Ting 1 17.0 2-3/4
9 0 CALIFORNIA LEVEE B/H/TT B Shinn · A S Cruz 13 19.0 3-1/2
10 0 CHAIRMAN LO Closed strongly B N Callan · J Size 12 77.0 5-1/4
11 0 FORTUNE HERO Led early TT V Borges · R Gibson 14 80.0 5-1/2
12 0 PRETTY CUTE Closed strongly TT K C Leung · C H Yip 9 228.0 6-1/4
13 0 SMART HUNTER XB M L Yeung · D J Whyte 10 332.0 6-1/4
14 0 CHAMP PATROL H K H Chan · C Fownes 7 42.0 9-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-24 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SUNNY STAR, ridden by C L Chau and trained by K W Lui, won by 3/4, with MIGHTY POWER second and SO AWESOME third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite MIGHTY POWER finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUNNY STAR—2. MIGHTY POWER+0.75L3. SO AWESOME+1L4. JUDY'S STAR+1.75L5. ROBOT WARRIOR+2L6. EVEN KEEL+2.75L7. ALL FOR ST PAUL'S+2.75L8. VIGOR CHAMP+2.75L9. CALIFORNIA LEVEE+3.5L10. CHAIRMAN LO+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SO AWESOME (22.1%) finished 3rd — the winner SUNNY STAR was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SO AWESOME 22.1% 4.53 3
2 0 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S 20.9% 4.78 7
3 0 MIGHTY POWER 14.6% 6.84 2
4 0 JUDY'S STAR 8.7% 11.46 4
5 0 SUNNY STAR 6.7% 14.82 1
6 0 FORTUNE HERO 5.6% 17.89 11
7 0 VIGOR CHAMP 4.9% 20.28 8
8 0 CHAMP PATROL 4.6% 21.66 14
9 0 CALIFORNIA LEVEE 3.6% 27.44 9
10 0 ROBOT WARRIOR 2.7% 36.42 5
11 0 CHAIRMAN LO 2.3% 43.85 10
12 0 EVEN KEEL 2.3% 43.95 6
13 0 SMART HUNTER 0.4% 222.42 13
14 0 PRETTY CUTE 0.4% 239.10 12
SO AWESOMEALL FOR ST PAUL'SMIGHTY POWERJUDY'S STARSUNNY STAR — wonFORTUNE HEROVIGOR CHAMPCHAMP PATROLCALIFORNIA LEVEEROBOT WARRIORCHAIRMAN LOEVEN KEELSMART HUNTERPRETTY CUTE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 64

PLACE

1 20

6 13.5

10 19

QUINELLA

1,6 99

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 40.5

1,10 77

6,10 29.5

FORECAST

1,6 313

TIERCE

1,6,10 956

TRIO

1,6,10 171

FIRST 4

1,3,6,10 193

QUARTET

1,6,10,3 4,699

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,6,12/1,6,10 139,389

3 PICK 1

A1 18.5

A2 —

A3 —

6TH DOUBLE

12/1 690.5

12/6 51