Sha Tin · 2020-11-22

Race 3

Group 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course B+2 7 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-22 was Group 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GOLDEN SIXTY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/2, with KA YING STAR second and SOUTHERN LEGEND third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.32.91

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	GOLDEN SIXTY Closed strongly 1.32.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	1	123 lb	1.1	1-1/2
2	3	KA YING STAR Led early V/TT C Schofield · A S Cruz	C Schofield	A S Cruz	2	123 lb	9.9	1-1/2
3	1	SOUTHERN LEGEND TT K Teetan · C Fownes	K Teetan	C Fownes	5	128 lb	18.0	1-3/4
4	7	MIGHTY GIANT B Z Purton · P F Yiu	Z Purton	P F Yiu	6	123 lb	9.0	3-3/4
5	6	CHAMPION'S WAY B-/TT J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	7	123 lb	18.0	6-1/2
6	5	HARMONY VICTORY Closed strongly SR/TT A Badel · C S Shum	A Badel	C S Shum	3	123 lb	58.0	6-1/2
7	4	SIMPLY BRILLIANT XB K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	4	123 lb	56.0	7-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick GOLDEN SIXTY (51.9%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	GOLDEN SIXTY	51.9%	1.93	1	1.1
2	7	MIGHTY GIANT	18.5%	5.42	4	9.0
3	6	CHAMPION'S WAY	11.1%	9.01	5	18.0
4	3	KA YING STAR	8.3%	11.99	2	9.9
5	1	SOUTHERN LEGEND	6.5%	15.39	3	18.0
6	4	SIMPLY BRILLIANT	2.4%	41.65	7	56.0
7	5	HARMONY VICTORY	1.3%	75.92	6	58.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 11.5

PLACE

1 18.5

2 10.1

3 13.5

QUINELLA

2,3 29

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 21

1,3 41

2,3 14.5

FORECAST

2,3 37

TIERCE

2,3,1 85

TRIO

1,2,3 41

FIRST 4

1,2,3,7 44

QUARTET

2,3,1,7 285

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

8/2 28.5

8/3 45.5

3 PICK 1

A1 11.5

A2 —

A3 —

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