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Sha Tin · 2020-11-22

Race 6

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course B+2 12 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-22 was Class 2 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. WINNING DELIGHT, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 3/4, with ENJOYING second and TIANCHI MONSTER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.46.35
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 WINNING DELIGHT Closed strongly TT 1.46.35 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes 12 4.3 3/4
2 3 ENJOYING Closed strongly B/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 3 11.0 3/4
3 8 TIANCHI MONSTER Closed strongly A Hamelin · W Y So 2 8.1 1
4 4 LAKESHORE EAGLE Closed strongly B1 K Teetan · W Y So 1 5.3 1-3/4
5 12 ENRICHMENT Closed strongly B V Borges · J Size 8 15.0 2
6 7 PACKING WALTHAM Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 11 7.5 2-1/4
7 6 ELITE PATCH B/H/TT A Badel · K W Lui 6 22.0 2-1/2
8 2 RELIABLE TEAM Led early B-/CP1 C Wong · F C Lor 7 16.0 2-3/4
9 10 GOLDEN SPECTRUM Closed strongly CP/H1/TT K C Leung · A S Cruz 9 9.7 3-1/4
10 5 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE XB M Chadwick · C W Chang 4 8.0 3-1/4
11 1 ELUSIVE STATE B2/TT C Schofield · A T Millard 5 71.0 5-3/4
12 9 AMAZING BEATS CP/TT M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan 10 28.0 6-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINNING DELIGHT2. ENJOYING+0.75L3. TIANCHI MONSTER+1L4. LAKESHORE EAGLE+1.75L5. ENRICHMENT+2L6. PACKING WALTHAM+2.25L7. ELITE PATCH+2.5L8. RELIABLE TEAM+2.75L9. GOLDEN SPECTRUM+3.25L10. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick LAKESHORE EAGLE (19.1%) finished 4th — the winner WINNING DELIGHT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 LAKESHORE EAGLE 19.1% 5.24 4
2 11 WINNING DELIGHT 18.0% 5.55 1
3 6 ELITE PATCH 11.1% 9.05 7
4 2 RELIABLE TEAM 9.3% 10.79 8
5 8 TIANCHI MONSTER 8.5% 11.75 3
6 7 PACKING WALTHAM 7.5% 13.28 6
7 5 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 5.9% 16.84 10
8 10 GOLDEN SPECTRUM 5.5% 18.05 9
9 3 ENJOYING 5.5% 18.29 2
10 12 ENRICHMENT 3.7% 26.96 5
11 1 ELUSIVE STATE 3.5% 28.49 11
12 9 AMAZING BEATS 2.4% 41.80 12
LAKESHORE EAGLEWINNING DELIGHT — wonELITE PATCHRELIABLE TEAMTIANCHI MONSTERPACKING WALTHAMRIGHTEOUS DOCTRINEGOLDEN SPECTRUMENJOYINGENRICHMENTELUSIVE STATEAMAZING BEATS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 43

PLACE

3 35.5

8 26.5

11 17

QUINELLA

3,11 314.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 142

3,11 112

8,11 86

FORECAST

11,3 423

TIERCE

11,3,8 3,174

TRIO

3,8,11 788

FIRST 4

3,4,8,11 638

QUARTET

11,3,8,4 14,982

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 22

5TH DOUBLE

1/3 48

1/11 209

TRIPLE TRIO

1,2,6/1,5,7/3,8,11 141,552

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,2,6/1,5,7/Any Combination 349