Sha Tin · 2020-11-22
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-22 was Class 2 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. WINNING DELIGHT, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 3/4, with ENJOYING second and TIANCHI MONSTER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | WINNING DELIGHT Closed strongly TT 1.46.35 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 12 | 4.3 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 3 | ENJOYING Closed strongly B/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 3 | 11.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 8 | TIANCHI MONSTER Closed strongly A Hamelin · W Y So | A Hamelin | W Y So | 2 | 8.1 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | LAKESHORE EAGLE Closed strongly B1 K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 1 | 5.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | ENRICHMENT Closed strongly B V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 8 | 15.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 7 | PACKING WALTHAM Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 11 | 7.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | ELITE PATCH B/H/TT A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 6 | 22.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | RELIABLE TEAM Led early B-/CP1 C Wong · F C Lor | C Wong | F C Lor | 7 | 16.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | GOLDEN SPECTRUM Closed strongly CP/H1/TT K C Leung · A S Cruz | K C Leung | A S Cruz | 9 | 9.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 5 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE XB M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 4 | 8.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 11 | 1 | ELUSIVE STATE B2/TT C Schofield · A T Millard | C Schofield | A T Millard | 5 | 71.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 9 | AMAZING BEATS CP/TT M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan | M L Yeung | P O'Sullivan | 10 | 28.0 | 6-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | LAKESHORE EAGLE | 19.1% | 5.24 | 4 |
| 2 | 11 | WINNING DELIGHT | 18.0% | 5.55 | 1 |
| 3 | 6 | ELITE PATCH | 11.1% | 9.05 | 7 |
| 4 | 2 | RELIABLE TEAM | 9.3% | 10.79 | 8 |
| 5 | 8 | TIANCHI MONSTER | 8.5% | 11.75 | 3 |
| 6 | 7 | PACKING WALTHAM | 7.5% | 13.28 | 6 |
| 7 | 5 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE | 5.9% | 16.84 | 10 |
| 8 | 10 | GOLDEN SPECTRUM | 5.5% | 18.05 | 9 |
| 9 | 3 | ENJOYING | 5.5% | 18.29 | 2 |
| 10 | 12 | ENRICHMENT | 3.7% | 26.96 | 5 |
| 11 | 1 | ELUSIVE STATE | 3.5% | 28.49 | 11 |
| 12 | 9 | AMAZING BEATS | 2.4% | 41.80 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 43
PLACE
3 35.5
8 26.5
11 17
QUINELLA
3,11 314.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,8 142
3,11 112
8,11 86
FORECAST
11,3 423
TIERCE
11,3,8 3,174
TRIO
3,8,11 788
FIRST 4
3,4,8,11 638
QUARTET
11,3,8,4 14,982
All pools (4 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 22
5TH DOUBLE
1/3 48
1/11 209
TRIPLE TRIO
1,2,6/1,5,7/3,8,11 141,552
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,2,6/1,5,7/Any Combination 349