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Sha Tin · 2020-11-22

Race 5

Group 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B+2 10 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-22 was Group 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HOT KING PRAWN, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 3/4, with COMPUTER PATCH second and RATTAN third. The 2.3 favourite COMPUTER PATCH finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.08.00
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 HOT KING PRAWN 1.08.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 5 3.9 3/4
2 7 COMPUTER PATCH TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 1 2.3 3/4
3 5 RATTAN B A Hamelin · R Gibson 7 50.0 1
4 3 VOYAGE WARRIOR Z Purton · P F Yiu 6 7.5 1-1/4
5 6 BIG PARTY C Schofield · F C Lor 2 17.0 1-1/2
6 8 FAT TURTLE B C Y Ho · F C Lor 9 49.0 1-1/2
7 10 STRONGER CP/XB/TT A Badel · D J Whyte 3 12.0 1-1/2
8 9 AMAZING STAR T Piccone · K H Ting 8 10.0 1-3/4
9 4 WISHFUL THINKER K C Leung · C H Yip 10 20.0 4-1/4
10 2 BIG TIME BABY M Chadwick · K L Man 4 15.0 10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HOT KING PRAWN2. COMPUTER PATCH+0.75L3. RATTAN+1L4. VOYAGE WARRIOR+1.25L5. BIG PARTY+1.5L6. FAT TURTLE+1.5L7. STRONGER+1.5L8. AMAZING STAR+1.75L9. WISHFUL THINKER+4.25L10. BIG TIME BABY+10.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick COMPUTER PATCH (36.9%) finished 2nd — the winner HOT KING PRAWN was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 COMPUTER PATCH 36.9% 2.71 2
2 1 HOT KING PRAWN 16.6% 6.01 1
3 3 VOYAGE WARRIOR 11.5% 8.71 4
4 10 STRONGER 9.4% 10.69 7
5 8 FAT TURTLE 7.2% 13.85 6
6 6 BIG PARTY 6.6% 15.20 5
7 2 BIG TIME BABY 4.7% 21.09 10
8 9 AMAZING STAR 3.0% 32.86 8
9 5 RATTAN 2.3% 43.60 3
10 4 WISHFUL THINKER 1.8% 56.38 9
COMPUTER PATCHHOT KING PRAWN — wonVOYAGE WARRIORSTRONGERFAT TURTLEBIG PARTYBIG TIME BABYAMAZING STARRATTANWISHFUL THINKER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 39

PLACE

1 15

5 83

7 13.5

QUINELLA

1,7 48.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 186.5

1,7 23.5

5,7 134.5

FORECAST

1,7 94

TIERCE

1,7,5 1,108

TRIO

1,5,7 281

FIRST 4

1,3,5,7 384

QUARTET

1,7,5,3 5,478

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 14.5

A2

A3

4TH DOUBLE

1/1 122

1/7 13