Sha Tin · 2020-11-22
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-22 was Group 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HOT KING PRAWN, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 3/4, with COMPUTER PATCH second and RATTAN third. The 2.3 favourite COMPUTER PATCH finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | HOT KING PRAWN 1.08.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 5 | 3.9 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 7 | COMPUTER PATCH TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 1 | 2.3 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 5 | RATTAN B A Hamelin · R Gibson | A Hamelin | R Gibson | 7 | 50.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 3 | VOYAGE WARRIOR Z Purton · P F Yiu | Z Purton | P F Yiu | 6 | 7.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | BIG PARTY C Schofield · F C Lor | C Schofield | F C Lor | 2 | 17.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | FAT TURTLE B C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 9 | 49.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | STRONGER CP/XB/TT A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 3 | 12.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 8 | 9 | AMAZING STAR T Piccone · K H Ting | T Piccone | K H Ting | 8 | 10.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 9 | 4 | WISHFUL THINKER K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 10 | 20.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 2 | BIG TIME BABY M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 4 | 15.0 | 10-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | COMPUTER PATCH | 36.9% | 2.71 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | HOT KING PRAWN | 16.6% | 6.01 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | VOYAGE WARRIOR | 11.5% | 8.71 | 4 |
| 4 | 10 | STRONGER | 9.4% | 10.69 | 7 |
| 5 | 8 | FAT TURTLE | 7.2% | 13.85 | 6 |
| 6 | 6 | BIG PARTY | 6.6% | 15.20 | 5 |
| 7 | 2 | BIG TIME BABY | 4.7% | 21.09 | 10 |
| 8 | 9 | AMAZING STAR | 3.0% | 32.86 | 8 |
| 9 | 5 | RATTAN | 2.3% | 43.60 | 3 |
| 10 | 4 | WISHFUL THINKER | 1.8% | 56.38 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 39
PLACE
1 15
5 83
7 13.5
QUINELLA
1,7 48.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 186.5
1,7 23.5
5,7 134.5
FORECAST
1,7 94
TIERCE
1,7,5 1,108
TRIO
1,5,7 281
FIRST 4
1,3,5,7 384
QUARTET
1,7,5,3 5,478
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 14.5
A2 —
A3 —
4TH DOUBLE
1/1 122
1/7 13