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Sha Tin · 2020-11-22

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-11-22 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HARMONY N BLESSED, ridden by B Shinn and trained by D A Hayes, won by 2, with EVERYONE'S DELIGHT second and FIRE BALL third. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 HARMONY N BLESSED XB1 1.08.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · D A Hayes 4 2.5 2
2 2 EVERYONE'S DELIGHT CP Z Purton · F C Lor 12 4.7 2
3 14 FIRE BALL B-/TT V Borges · C H Yip 6 93.0 2-3/4
4 1 CLASSIC POSH C L Chau · D J Hall 2 3.8 5
5 5 CHARITY GRACE H J Moreira · C S Shum 5 7.9 6
6 4 STAY CHILL T Piccone · W Y So 8 58.0 6
7 3 GOLDEN LINK B M Chadwick · P F Yiu 13 15.0 7
8 12 GALLANT CROWN B/TT A Hamelin · A T Millard 10 18.0 7-1/2
9 13 IMPECCABLE FELLOW B/H C Wong · R Gibson 7 113.0 8-1/4
10 7 HARD PROMISE TT C Schofield · T P Yung 14 37.0 8-1/2
11 6 EL VALIENTE B1 M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan 1 113.0 10-1/2
12 10 SCENIC SWEETIE B1 A Badel · Y S Tsui 9 46.0 11-1/2
13 9 PICHU TT1 N Callan · K H Ting 11 166.0 13
14 11 RUNNING GUY H N Wong · C W Chang 3 343.0 16-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HARMONY N BLESSED2. EVERYONE'S DELIGHT+2L3. FIRE BALL+2.75L4. CLASSIC POSH+5L5. CHARITY GRACE+6L6. STAY CHILL+6L7. GOLDEN LINK+7L8. GALLANT CROWN+7.5L9. IMPECCABLE FELLOW+8.25L10. HARD PROMISE+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick EVERYONE'S DELIGHT (40.4%) finished 2nd — the winner HARMONY N BLESSED was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 EVERYONE'S DELIGHT 40.4% 2.48 2
2 1 CLASSIC POSH 23.1% 4.33 4
3 3 GOLDEN LINK 6.5% 15.50 7
4 5 CHARITY GRACE 5.4% 18.44 5
5 9 PICHU 4.2% 24.06 13
6 12 GALLANT CROWN 3.8% 26.61 8
7 10 SCENIC SWEETIE 3.2% 31.54 12
8 6 EL VALIENTE 2.9% 34.01 11
9 7 HARD PROMISE 2.7% 37.30 10
10 13 IMPECCABLE FELLOW 2.4% 41.87 9
11 4 STAY CHILL 2.2% 45.15 6
12 8 HARMONY N BLESSED 2.1% 47.48 1
13 14 FIRE BALL 0.9% 114.12 3
14 11 RUNNING GUY 0.3% 290.32 14
EVERYONE'S DELIGHTCLASSIC POSHGOLDEN LINKCHARITY GRACEPICHUGALLANT CROWNSCENIC SWEETIEEL VALIENTEHARD PROMISEIMPECCABLE FELLOWSTAY CHILLHARMONY N BLESSED — wonFIRE BALLRUNNING GUY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 25.5

PLACE

2 15.5

8 13

14 135

QUINELLA

2,8 65.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 28

2,14 383.5

8,14 296

FORECAST

8,2 113

TIERCE

8,2,14 3,751

TRIO

2,8,14 834

FIRST 4

1,2,8,14 791

QUARTET

8,2,14,1 16,852

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

6/2 104

6/8 420.5

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 16.5