Sha Tin · 2021-02-06

Race 3

Class 2 GOOD 1600m Course C 8 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-02-06 was Class 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. THE ROCK, ridden by A Badel and trained by C Fownes, won by 1/2, with CONQUEROR second and ARTHUR'S KINGDOM third. The winner led throughout. The 1.7 favourite CIRCUIT THREE finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.34.20

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	7	THE ROCK Wire to wire 1.34.20 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C Fownes	A Badel	C Fownes	5	119 lb	8.9	1/2
2	4	CONQUEROR Closed strongly B T Piccone · D A Hayes	T Piccone	D A Hayes	1	122 lb	66.0	1/2
3	5	ARTHUR'S KINGDOM Closed strongly H/XB B Shinn · Y S Tsui	B Shinn	Y S Tsui	4	121 lb	134.0	3/4
4	8	ALPHA HEDGE CP V Borges · K W Lui	V Borges	K W Lui	3	118 lb	31.0	1-1/4
5	6	SEA OF LIFE V C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	2	120 lb	3.5	1-1/2
6	1	PRECIOUSSHIP XB A Hamelin · P F Yiu	A Hamelin	P F Yiu	6	133 lb	18.0	3-1/4
7	3	LAKESHORE EAGLE Closed strongly B- K Teetan · W Y So	K Teetan	W Y So	8	127 lb	7.0	3-1/2
8	2	CIRCUIT THREE B/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz	J Moreira	A S Cruz	7	129 lb	1.7	3-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick THE ROCK (32.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	7	THE ROCK	32.0%	3.13	1	8.9
2	2	CIRCUIT THREE	28.7%	3.48	8	1.7
3	6	SEA OF LIFE	19.5%	5.14	5	3.5
4	3	LAKESHORE EAGLE	7.5%	13.42	7	7.0
5	1	PRECIOUSSHIP	6.2%	16.05	6	18.0
6	8	ALPHA HEDGE	4.8%	20.98	4	31.0
7	5	ARTHUR'S KINGDOM	0.8%	123.89	3	134.0
8	4	CONQUEROR	0.6%	167.27	2	66.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 89

PLACE

4 87

5 135.5

7 16

QUINELLA

4,7 1,850

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 935

4,7 351

5,7 699

FORECAST

7,4 2,869

TIERCE

7,4,5 47,806

TRIO

4,5,7 12,907

FIRST 4

4,5,7,8 10,287

QUARTET

7,4,5,8 203,724

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

10/4 689.5

10/7 487.5

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 —

A2 32.5

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