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Sha Tin · 2021-02-06

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-02-06 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. JUDY'S STAR, ridden by K C Leung and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by 1, with VOYAGE STAR second and GLENEALY GENERALS third. The 2.1 favourite PEGASUS GLORY finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.09.25
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 JUDY'S STAR B 1.09.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 1 4.9 1
2 12 VOYAGE STAR V/TT K Teetan · T P Yung 5 9.5 1
3 3 GLENEALY GENERALS V N Callan · C H Yip 4 9.6 1
4 7 STAR OF WUYI B1 C Y Ho · K W Lui 12 10.0 2-1/2
5 9 SWOT TROOPERS WIND B A Hamelin · D J Hall 2 44.0 2-3/4
6 1 PEGASUS GLORY Z Purton · K H Ting 7 2.1 3
7 2 SUPER RED DRAGON B/TT A Badel · W Y So 11 8.5 4-1/2
8 10 WAYFOONG STAR B-/SR-/XB- T Piccone · D J Whyte 6 22.0 6
9 4 DIAMOND PIXIU H N Wong · P F Yiu 9 41.0 7-1/4
10 11 WINNER'S HEART M Chadwick · F C Lor 8 74.0 12-1/2
11 5 GRAND POWER H1 H T Mo · C W Chang 3 201.0 13-1/2
12 8 SUNDAY BETTING V-/TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 10 55.0 29-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JUDY'S STAR2. VOYAGE STAR+1L3. GLENEALY GENERALS+1L4. STAR OF WUYI+2.5L5. SWOT TROOPERS WIND+2.75L6. PEGASUS GLORY+3L7. SUPER RED DRAGON+4.5L8. WAYFOONG STAR+6L9. DIAMOND PIXIU+7.25L10. WINNER'S HEART+12.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick PEGASUS GLORY (26.2%) finished 6th — the winner JUDY'S STAR was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 PEGASUS GLORY 26.2% 3.82 6
2 6 JUDY'S STAR 19.8% 5.06 1
3 3 GLENEALY GENERALS 11.5% 8.70 3
4 7 STAR OF WUYI 10.3% 9.73 4
5 2 SUPER RED DRAGON 7.0% 14.22 7
6 9 SWOT TROOPERS WIND 7.0% 14.36 5
7 12 VOYAGE STAR 6.7% 14.84 2
8 11 WINNER'S HEART 4.8% 20.76 10
9 8 SUNDAY BETTING 2.3% 44.13 12
10 10 WAYFOONG STAR 2.0% 49.06 8
11 5 GRAND POWER 1.3% 74.50 11
12 4 DIAMOND PIXIU 1.1% 92.73 9
PEGASUS GLORYJUDY'S STAR — wonGLENEALY GENERALSSTAR OF WUYISUPER RED DRAGONSWOT TROOPERS WINDVOYAGE STARWINNER'S HEARTSUNDAY BETTINGWAYFOONG STARGRAND POWERDIAMOND PIXIU

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 49.5

PLACE

3 27

6 15

12 29.5

QUINELLA

6,12 167.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 67.5

3,12 101

6,12 55.5

FORECAST

6,12 403

TIERCE

6,12,3 2,100

TRIO

3,6,12 317

FIRST 4

3,6,7,12 710

QUARTET

6,12,3,7 12,280

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

4,5,7/3,6,12 940,603

3 PICK 1

A1 15

A2

A3

3RD DOUBLE

7/6 444

7/12 110.5