Sha Tin · 2021-02-06
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-02-06 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. TRILLION WIN, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K L Man, won by 1-1/2, with VALIANT DREAM second and KEEP YOU WARM third. The 1.8 favourite JOYFUL FORTUNE finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | TRILLION WIN 0.55.57 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 11 | 25.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 1 | VALIANT DREAM Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 5 | 5.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 9 | KEEP YOU WARM B/XB A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 8 | 9.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | JOYFUL FORTUNE TT1 J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 9 | 1.8 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 8 | WAR OF COURAGE B1 N Callan · K L Man | N Callan | K L Man | 6 | 20.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 11 | SEVEN HEAVENS V/TT2 C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 4 | 13.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | PRINCE OF GEMS TT A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 3 | 9.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 3 | MR LUMIERES C L Chau · D J Hall | C L Chau | D J Hall | 10 | 17.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 5 | LOYAL BABY K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 7 | 38.0 | 13 |
| 10 | 10 | BLOTTING PAPER B C Wong · R Gibson | C Wong | R Gibson | 2 | 116.0 | 14-1/4 |
| 11 | 2 | NORTHERN DRAGON TT1 C Schofield · W Y So | C Schofield | W Y So | 1 | 79.0 | 24 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | JOYFUL FORTUNE | 40.3% | 2.48 | 4 |
| 2 | 1 | VALIANT DREAM | 14.4% | 6.94 | 2 |
| 3 | 6 | PRINCE OF GEMS | 12.7% | 7.90 | 7 |
| 4 | 9 | KEEP YOU WARM | 6.3% | 15.85 | 3 |
| 5 | 11 | SEVEN HEAVENS | 6.3% | 15.96 | 6 |
| 6 | 8 | WAR OF COURAGE | 4.9% | 20.24 | 5 |
| 7 | 5 | LOYAL BABY | 3.8% | 26.05 | 9 |
| 8 | 10 | BLOTTING PAPER | 3.1% | 32.26 | 10 |
| 9 | 2 | NORTHERN DRAGON | 2.9% | 33.96 | 11 |
| 10 | 3 | MR LUMIERES | 2.6% | 37.93 | 8 |
| 11 | 4 | TRILLION WIN | 2.6% | 37.95 | 1 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 250.5
PLACE
1 15.5
4 52.5
9 23.5
QUINELLA
1,4 507.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 152.5
1,9 53.5
4,9 258
FORECAST
4,1 1,139
TIERCE
4,1,9 8,741
TRIO
1,4,9 1,629
FIRST 4
1,4,7,9 401
QUARTET
4,1,9,7 17,272
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 47.5
A2 —
7TH DOUBLE
3/1 274.5
3/4 3,412