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Sha Tin · 2021-02-14

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course A 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2021-02-14 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. DECISIVE ACTION, ridden by C Soumillon and trained by C S Shum, won by 1, with GREEN ENVY second and SHANGHAI DRAGON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.35.36
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 DECISIVE ACTION Closed strongly CP/TT 1.35.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Soumillon · C S Shum 6 3.7 1
2 10 GREEN ENVY Closed strongly V/TT K Teetan · C Fownes 5 4.1 1
3 13 SHANGHAI DRAGON Led early B M F Poon · T P Yung 8 10.0 2-1/2
4 8 SAVVY KINGMAN Closed strongly B Shinn · F C Lor 7 95.0 2-1/2
5 12 COPARTNER ERA Closed strongly B A Badel · W Y So 13 12.0 3
6 6 DONC JE SUIS Closed strongly CP-/B1 V Borges · D A Hayes 9 11.0 3
7 7 LAND POWER C L Chau · A T Millard 12 6.9 4-1/4
8 1 CHARIZARD TT Z Purton · D E Ferraris 3 7.9 4-1/4
9 2 BRIGHT VISION B- K C Leung · P F Yiu 1 47.0 4-1/4
10 9 RUN RUN GOOD Closed strongly CP-/B1 C Y Ho · K L Man 11 63.0 6
11 5 STARSHIP Closed strongly B N Callan · P O'Sullivan 10 22.0 7-1/2
12 14 SPEEDY OPTIMIST M L Yeung · C H Yip 4 38.0 9
13 4 BEST FOR YOU B H T Mo · Y S Tsui 2 50.0 11-1/4
14 11 PAKISTAN ZINDABAD B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 14 34.0 12-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DECISIVE ACTION2. GREEN ENVY+1L3. SHANGHAI DRAGON+2.5L4. SAVVY KINGMAN+2.5L5. COPARTNER ERA+3L6. DONC JE SUIS+3L7. LAND POWER+4.25L8. CHARIZARD+4.25L9. BRIGHT VISION+4.25L10. RUN RUN GOOD+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick GREEN ENVY (25.7%) finished 2nd — the winner DECISIVE ACTION was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 GREEN ENVY 25.7% 3.89 2
2 1 CHARIZARD 14.1% 7.12 8
3 3 DECISIVE ACTION 9.1% 10.95 1
4 13 SHANGHAI DRAGON 8.9% 11.27 3
5 12 COPARTNER ERA 8.2% 12.26 5
6 7 LAND POWER 7.6% 13.12 7
7 14 SPEEDY OPTIMIST 6.6% 15.15 12
8 6 DONC JE SUIS 5.1% 19.50 6
9 4 BEST FOR YOU 4.0% 24.72 13
10 11 PAKISTAN ZINDABAD 3.6% 27.64 14
11 5 STARSHIP 2.8% 36.01 11
12 2 BRIGHT VISION 2.1% 46.90 9
13 9 RUN RUN GOOD 1.1% 89.02 10
14 8 SAVVY KINGMAN 1.0% 98.01 4
GREEN ENVYCHARIZARDDECISIVE ACTION — wonSHANGHAI DRAGONCOPARTNER ERALAND POWERSPEEDY OPTIMISTDONC JE SUISBEST FOR YOUPAKISTAN ZINDABADSTARSHIPBRIGHT VISIONRUN RUN GOODSAVVY KINGMAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 37

PLACE

3 14.5

10 18

13 23.5

QUINELLA

3,10 79

QUINELLA PLACE

3,10 34

3,13 73

10,13 75.5

FORECAST

3,10 225

TIERCE

3,10,13 1,152

TRIO

3,10,13 255

FIRST 4

3,8,10,13 4,806

QUARTET

3,10,13,8 43,980

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 26.5

5TH DOUBLE

4/3 236.5

4/10 32.5