Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2021-02-14

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-02-14 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. DANDY YEARS, ridden by C Soumillon and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with NEW FUTURE second and SPARKY STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.3 favourite SUPER TEN finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.22.50
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 DANDY YEARS Closed strongly B/TT 1.22.50 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Soumillon · C S Shum 14 4.2 N
2 2 NEW FUTURE Closed strongly B/TT B Shinn · T P Yung 13 5.7 N
3 12 SPARKY STAR Closed strongly B M F Poon · D J Hall 10 34.0 1
4 5 SUPER TEN XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 1 2.3 1-1/4
5 10 LIGHT OF WANSHI Closed strongly TT A Badel · W Y So 12 10.0 2
6 3 TAKINGUFURTHER Led early H/V M L Yeung · K H Ting 5 53.0 4-3/4
7 4 ALL YOU KNOW Closed strongly H-/B/TT T Piccone · R Gibson 6 38.0 5
8 6 ALEE KING PRAWN B V Borges · D A Hayes 2 62.0 5-1/4
9 7 CIRCUIT HERO Closed strongly N Callan · P F Yiu 11 170.0 6-1/4
10 13 JOYFUL MOMENTS B- H N Wong · C W Chang 7 63.0 6-1/4
11 1 SHADOW RUNNER B1 K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 3 10.0 6-1/2
12 11 CIGARY Closed strongly B H T Mo · Y S Tsui 9 198.0 7
13 8 GOLD COMET CP C Schofield · A T Millard 8 21.0 7-3/4
14 14 KELMIMI WINS B/TT M Chadwick · D E Ferraris 4 53.0 17-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DANDY YEARS2. NEW FUTURE+0.05L3. SPARKY STAR+1L4. SUPER TEN+1.25L5. LIGHT OF WANSHI+2L6. TAKINGUFURTHER+4.75L7. ALL YOU KNOW+5L8. ALEE KING PRAWN+5.25L9. CIRCUIT HERO+6.25L10. JOYFUL MOMENTS+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SUPER TEN (34.0%) finished 4th — the winner DANDY YEARS was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 SUPER TEN 34.0% 2.94 4
2 2 NEW FUTURE 12.8% 7.81 2
3 9 DANDY YEARS 10.7% 9.37 1
4 8 GOLD COMET 7.1% 14.12 13
5 12 SPARKY STAR 7.0% 14.19 3
6 4 ALL YOU KNOW 5.7% 17.64 7
7 1 SHADOW RUNNER 5.1% 19.76 11
8 10 LIGHT OF WANSHI 4.3% 23.08 5
9 3 TAKINGUFURTHER 4.1% 24.58 6
10 14 KELMIMI WINS 3.2% 31.40 14
11 13 JOYFUL MOMENTS 2.6% 38.22 10
12 11 CIGARY 1.8% 56.53 12
13 6 ALEE KING PRAWN 0.9% 112.04 8
14 7 CIRCUIT HERO 0.8% 130.89 9
SUPER TENNEW FUTUREDANDY YEARS — wonGOLD COMETSPARKY STARALL YOU KNOWSHADOW RUNNERLIGHT OF WANSHITAKINGUFURTHERKELMIMI WINSJOYFUL MOMENTSCIGARYALEE KING PRAWNCIRCUIT HERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 42

PLACE

2 18.5

9 15.5

12 77.5

QUINELLA

2,9 132.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 42

2,12 271.5

9,12 238.5

FORECAST

9,2 319

TIERCE

9,2,12 8,194

TRIO

2,9,12 1,896

FIRST 4

2,5,9,12 582

QUARTET

9,2,12,5 22,378

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

9/2 453

9/9 3,230

3 PICK 1

A2 23.5

A3

A1