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Sha Tin · 2021-02-14

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-02-14 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. FANTASTIC TREASURE, ridden by C Schofield and trained by D A Hayes, won by NOSE, with SMART WONGCHOY second and FAMILY FOLKS third. The 4.1 favourite SMART WONGCHOY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.10.19
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 FANTASTIC TREASURE 1.10.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · D A Hayes 13 26.0 NOSE
2 14 SMART WONGCHOY H A Badel · D J Whyte 3 4.1 NOSE
3 2 FAMILY FOLKS T Piccone · C W Chang 7 8.1 HD
4 1 EVERYONE'S DELIGHT B-/V1 C L Chau · F C Lor 9 5.8 2
5 11 GOOD BUDDY H- B Shinn · D J Hall 10 165.0 2
6 4 ULTIMATE GLORY V N Callan · K L Man 2 10.0 2-1/4
7 12 HOT CHILI PEPPER CP/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 6 5.9 2-1/2
8 7 FORMULA EXCEL C Y Ho · C Fownes 1 90.0 2-3/4
9 3 GALACTIC K Teetan · A T Millard 11 10.0 3
10 13 SUNNY AND GOLD H/TT K C Leung · C H Yip 5 29.0 3
11 6 BULLISH UNICORN TT1 C Soumillon · A S Cruz 8 5.5 3-1/4
12 8 FULL SAILING H T Mo · Y S Tsui 12 280.0 6-1/4
13 9 RUN DES RUN M F Poon · K W Lui 4 30.0 7
14 5 ALL YOU WANT B1/TT V Borges · R Gibson 14 184.0 9-3/4
0 TOUCH FAITH C Schofield · J Size

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FANTASTIC TREASURE2. SMART WONGCHOY+0.05L3. FAMILY FOLKS+0.2L4. EVERYONE'S DELIGHT+2L5. GOOD BUDDY+2L6. ULTIMATE GLORY+2.25L7. HOT CHILI PEPPER+2.5L8. FORMULA EXCEL+2.75L9. GALACTIC+3L10. SUNNY AND GOLD+3L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick HOT CHILI PEPPER (23.8%) finished 7th — the winner FANTASTIC TREASURE was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 HOT CHILI PEPPER 23.8% 4.21 7
2 6 BULLISH UNICORN 13.1% 7.66 11
3 1 EVERYONE'S DELIGHT 12.7% 7.90 4
4 2 FAMILY FOLKS 8.8% 11.35 3
5 14 SMART WONGCHOY 7.5% 13.34 2
6 4 ULTIMATE GLORY 7.4% 13.53 6
7 7 FORMULA EXCEL 7.1% 14.15 8
8 3 GALACTIC 6.2% 16.15 9
9 9 RUN DES RUN 5.1% 19.80 13
10 10 FANTASTIC TREASURE 3.8% 26.17 1
11 13 SUNNY AND GOLD 3.1% 31.95 10
12 8 FULL SAILING 0.7% 148.95 12
13 11 GOOD BUDDY 0.5% 218.52 5
14 5 ALL YOU WANT 0.4% 232.20 14
HOT CHILI PEPPERBULLISH UNICORNEVERYONE'S DELIGHTFAMILY FOLKSSMART WONGCHOYULTIMATE GLORYFORMULA EXCELGALACTICRUN DES RUNFANTASTIC TREASURE — wonSUNNY AND GOLDFULL SAILINGGOOD BUDDYALL YOU WANT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 265

PLACE

2 26.5

10 72.5

14 15

QUINELLA

10,14 663.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,10 239.5

2,14 65

10,14 186.5

FORECAST

10,14 1,084

TIERCE

10,14,2 11,479

TRIO

2,10,14 1,363

FIRST 4

1,2,10,14 1,472

QUARTET

10,14,2,1 43,541

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 31

A2

3RD DOUBLE

9/10 2,233.5

9/14 34.5