Sha Tin · 2021-02-14
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-02-14 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. DECISIVE TWELVE, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by W Y So, won by 3/4, with SUPER WINNER second and PRANCE DRAGON third. The 3.0 favourite DIVINE ERA finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | DECISIVE TWELVE TT 1.09.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 8 | 6.1 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 12 | SUPER WINNER TT H N Wong · C H Yip | H N Wong | C H Yip | 5 | 16.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 2 | PRANCE DRAGON V/TT Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 4 | 7.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | DIVINE ERA XB1 K Teetan · K H Ting | K Teetan | K H Ting | 6 | 3.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 8 | SUPER MISSION K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 2 | 9.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | BRANDING POWER B1 M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 3 | 4.8 | 3 |
| 7 | 1 | WISDOM PATCH XB/TT N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 1 | 33.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 6 | DRAGON FORTUNE TT1 C Schofield · F C Lor | C Schofield | F C Lor | 13 | 14.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 13 | DESTINE JEWELLERY B M Chadwick · J Size | M Chadwick | J Size | 14 | 25.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | GOLDEN BOLT XB A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 12 | 94.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 14 | LUCKY PUZZLE SR2 H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 7 | 51.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 9 | WHO LOVES THE ACE C Soumillon · C Fownes | C Soumillon | C Fownes | 9 | 46.0 | 9 |
| 13 | 11 | HAPPY RUBY H1/P1/XB1/TT V Borges · A T Millard | V Borges | A T Millard | 10 | 198.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 14 | 10 | HOLYSHOWCASING T Piccone · D E Ferraris | T Piccone | D E Ferraris | 11 | 208.0 | 11-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | SUPER MISSION | 14.3% | 6.99 | 5 |
| 2 | 3 | BRANDING POWER | 11.2% | 8.93 | 6 |
| 3 | 2 | PRANCE DRAGON | 10.9% | 9.19 | 3 |
| 4 | 12 | SUPER WINNER | 10.4% | 9.59 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | WHO LOVES THE ACE | 9.4% | 10.60 | 12 |
| 6 | 5 | DIVINE ERA | 8.1% | 12.29 | 4 |
| 7 | 4 | DECISIVE TWELVE | 8.0% | 12.43 | 1 |
| 8 | 13 | DESTINE JEWELLERY | 8.0% | 12.43 | 9 |
| 9 | 6 | DRAGON FORTUNE | 7.8% | 12.89 | 8 |
| 10 | 1 | WISDOM PATCH | 3.9% | 25.50 | 7 |
| 11 | 14 | LUCKY PUZZLE | 3.6% | 27.73 | 11 |
| 12 | 7 | GOLDEN BOLT | 3.0% | 33.16 | 10 |
| 13 | 10 | HOLYSHOWCASING | 0.7% | 133.72 | 14 |
| 14 | 11 | HAPPY RUBY | 0.5% | 207.74 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 61.5
PLACE
2 24
4 16.5
12 47.5
QUINELLA
4,12 475.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 69
2,12 185.5
4,12 158
FORECAST
4,12 861
TIERCE
4,12,2 4,953
TRIO
2,4,12 907
FIRST 4
2,4,5,12 719
QUARTET
4,12,2,5 17,916
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,10,14/2,4,12 148,650
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 20
4TH DOUBLE
10/4 1,704.5
10/12 762