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Sha Tin · 2021-02-14

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-02-14 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. DECISIVE TWELVE, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by W Y So, won by 3/4, with SUPER WINNER second and PRANCE DRAGON third. The 3.0 favourite DIVINE ERA finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.09.73
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 DECISIVE TWELVE TT 1.09.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · W Y So 8 6.1 3/4
2 12 SUPER WINNER TT H N Wong · C H Yip 5 16.0 3/4
3 2 PRANCE DRAGON V/TT Z Purton · T P Yung 4 7.3 1-1/2
4 5 DIVINE ERA XB1 K Teetan · K H Ting 6 3.0 2-1/4
5 8 SUPER MISSION K C Leung · P F Yiu 2 9.0 2-3/4
6 3 BRANDING POWER B1 M F Poon · K W Lui 3 4.8 3
7 1 WISDOM PATCH XB/TT N Callan · P O'Sullivan 1 33.0 3
8 6 DRAGON FORTUNE TT1 C Schofield · F C Lor 13 14.0 3-1/4
9 13 DESTINE JEWELLERY B M Chadwick · J Size 14 25.0 5-1/4
10 7 GOLDEN BOLT XB A Badel · D J Whyte 12 94.0 6-3/4
11 14 LUCKY PUZZLE SR2 H T Mo · Y S Tsui 7 51.0 7-3/4
12 9 WHO LOVES THE ACE C Soumillon · C Fownes 9 46.0 9
13 11 HAPPY RUBY H1/P1/XB1/TT V Borges · A T Millard 10 198.0 10-3/4
14 10 HOLYSHOWCASING T Piccone · D E Ferraris 11 208.0 11-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DECISIVE TWELVE2. SUPER WINNER+0.75L3. PRANCE DRAGON+1.5L4. DIVINE ERA+2.25L5. SUPER MISSION+2.75L6. BRANDING POWER+3L7. WISDOM PATCH+3L8. DRAGON FORTUNE+3.25L9. DESTINE JEWELLERY+5.25L10. GOLDEN BOLT+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SUPER MISSION (14.3%) finished 5th — the winner DECISIVE TWELVE was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 SUPER MISSION 14.3% 6.99 5
2 3 BRANDING POWER 11.2% 8.93 6
3 2 PRANCE DRAGON 10.9% 9.19 3
4 12 SUPER WINNER 10.4% 9.59 2
5 9 WHO LOVES THE ACE 9.4% 10.60 12
6 5 DIVINE ERA 8.1% 12.29 4
7 4 DECISIVE TWELVE 8.0% 12.43 1
8 13 DESTINE JEWELLERY 8.0% 12.43 9
9 6 DRAGON FORTUNE 7.8% 12.89 8
10 1 WISDOM PATCH 3.9% 25.50 7
11 14 LUCKY PUZZLE 3.6% 27.73 11
12 7 GOLDEN BOLT 3.0% 33.16 10
13 10 HOLYSHOWCASING 0.7% 133.72 14
14 11 HAPPY RUBY 0.5% 207.74 13
SUPER MISSIONBRANDING POWERPRANCE DRAGONSUPER WINNERWHO LOVES THE ACEDIVINE ERADECISIVE TWELVE — wonDESTINE JEWELLERYDRAGON FORTUNEWISDOM PATCHLUCKY PUZZLEGOLDEN BOLTHOLYSHOWCASINGHAPPY RUBY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 61.5

PLACE

2 24

4 16.5

12 47.5

QUINELLA

4,12 475.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 69

2,12 185.5

4,12 158

FORECAST

4,12 861

TIERCE

4,12,2 4,953

TRIO

2,4,12 907

FIRST 4

2,4,5,12 719

QUARTET

4,12,2,5 17,916

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,10,14/2,4,12 148,650

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 20

4TH DOUBLE

10/4 1,704.5

10/12 762