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Sha Tin · 2021-02-14

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.23.81
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 NOBLE MAN Closed strongly B/E/TT 1.23.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · J Size 2 42.0 N
2 0 SUN OF MAKFI Closed strongly C L Chau · D J Hall 1 2.8 N
3 0 JIANGXI STAMINA Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · W Y So 6 4.0 3/4
4 0 APOLAR WARRIOR Closed strongly V K C Leung · P F Yiu 8 10.0 2-1/4
5 0 BLAZING PARTNERS B A Badel · D E Ferraris 3 9.9 2-1/4
6 0 SEIZE THE SPIRIT Closed strongly T Piccone · Y S Tsui 9 15.0 2-1/4
7 0 SURE WIN WIN C Soumillon · T P Yung 11 10.0 3
8 0 HAPPY JAI JAI Led early B1/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 14 51.0 3-3/4
9 0 MANNA FROM HEAVEN H C Wong · K L Man 5 33.0 4-1/4
10 0 UNIVERSAL RECORD Closed strongly CP1 K Teetan · A T Millard 13 84.0 4-1/4
11 0 IMPECCABLE FELLOW B/H C Schofield · R Gibson 4 19.0 5-1/4
12 0 BREAK RECORD CP-/B2/TT N Callan · L Ho 10 160.0 6-1/4
13 0 FOR FUN'S SAKE Closed strongly B Shinn · C Fownes 12 12.0 7-3/4
14 0 GORGEOUS INHERITOR TT1 Z Purton · C H Yip 7 29.0 10-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-02-14 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. NOBLE MAN, ridden by V Borges and trained by J Size, won by N, with SUN OF MAKFI second and JIANGXI STAMINA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite SUN OF MAKFI finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NOBLE MAN—2. SUN OF MAKFI+0.05L3. JIANGXI STAMINA+0.75L4. APOLAR WARRIOR+2.25L5. BLAZING PARTNERS+2.25L6. SEIZE THE SPIRIT+2.25L7. SURE WIN WIN+3L8. HAPPY JAI JAI+3.75L9. MANNA FROM HEAVEN+4.25L10. UNIVERSAL RECORD+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SUN OF MAKFI (18.4%) finished 2nd — the winner NOBLE MAN was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SUN OF MAKFI 18.4% 5.44 2
2 0 SURE WIN WIN 14.0% 7.16 7
3 0 NOBLE MAN 10.1% 9.89 1
4 0 MANNA FROM HEAVEN 10.1% 9.92 9
5 0 JIANGXI STAMINA 9.1% 11.02 3
6 0 GORGEOUS INHERITOR 8.0% 12.45 14
7 0 SEIZE THE SPIRIT 5.3% 18.75 6
8 0 BLAZING PARTNERS 5.3% 18.78 5
9 0 APOLAR WARRIOR 5.1% 19.46 4
10 0 IMPECCABLE FELLOW 5.0% 20.02 11
11 0 HAPPY JAI JAI 3.0% 33.64 8
12 0 UNIVERSAL RECORD 2.5% 40.43 10
13 0 FOR FUN'S SAKE 2.3% 42.84 13
14 0 BREAK RECORD 1.8% 55.76 12
SUN OF MAKFISURE WIN WINNOBLE MAN — wonMANNA FROM HEAVENJIANGXI STAMINAGORGEOUS INHERITORSEIZE THE SPIRITBLAZING PARTNERSAPOLAR WARRIORIMPECCABLE FELLOWHAPPY JAI JAIUNIVERSAL RECORDFOR FUN'S SAKEBREAK RECORD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 424.5

PLACE

2 16.5

3 14

9 103

QUINELLA

3,9 530

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 33

2,9 360

3,9 175

FORECAST

9,3 1,866

TIERCE

9,3,2 9,501

TRIO

2,3,9 801

FIRST 4

2,3,5,9 1,463

QUARTET

9,3,2,5 53,598

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

3/3 23.5

3/9 2,404.5

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 28.5

A1 —