Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2021-02-14

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 2000m Course A 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-02-14 was Class 5 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. KUNGFUMASTER PANDA, ridden by K C Leung and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by 1-1/4, with AMAZING AGILITY second and THE JOY OF GIVING third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 2.03.68
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 KUNGFUMASTER PANDA Closed strongly B/TT 2.03.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 8 4.7 1-1/4
2 5 AMAZING AGILITY Closed strongly SR/TT K Teetan · L Ho 1 5.2 1-1/4
3 14 THE JOY OF GIVING Closed strongly B/H V Borges · C W Chang 12 53.0 1-3/4
4 11 FORTUNE PATROL Closed strongly B/H/XB M F Poon · A T Millard 2 5.1 2-1/4
5 8 JOLLY FOREVER Closed strongly V-/XB1/TT H N Wong · W Y So 10 65.0 3
6 1 FORTUNE TRIPLE Closed strongly T Piccone · Y S Tsui 5 26.0 4-3/4
7 2 HAY RUN XB-/V/TT2 B Shinn · L Ho 7 31.0 4-3/4
8 4 NUREMBERG B/H/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 11 6.4 5-1/2
9 9 STAR WIN B-/CP2 C L Chau · D J Whyte 3 59.0 6-1/4
10 7 SMART THINKER TT C Soumillon · C H Yip 14 7.6 7-1/2
11 6 YOU HAVE MY WORD Closed strongly B C Schofield · T P Yung 13 12.0 9-3/4
12 13 WICKER Led early B H T Mo · R Gibson 9 34.0 11-1/4
13 12 ENJOYABLE SUCCESS V-/B2 C Wong · Y S Tsui 6 19.0 11-3/4
14 10 SUCCESS ALLSTARS B M Chadwick · D E Ferraris 4 24.0 13-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KUNGFUMASTER PANDA2. AMAZING AGILITY+1.25L3. THE JOY OF GIVING+1.75L4. FORTUNE PATROL+2.25L5. JOLLY FOREVER+3L6. FORTUNE TRIPLE+4.75L7. HAY RUN+4.75L8. NUREMBERG+5.5L9. STAR WIN+6.25L10. SMART THINKER+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick NUREMBERG (13.1%) finished 8th — the winner KUNGFUMASTER PANDA was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 NUREMBERG 13.1% 7.61 8
2 11 FORTUNE PATROL 12.9% 7.77 4
3 7 SMART THINKER 10.2% 9.83 10
4 5 AMAZING AGILITY 10.2% 9.84 2
5 3 KUNGFUMASTER PANDA 9.9% 10.09 1
6 10 SUCCESS ALLSTARS 8.8% 11.30 14
7 6 YOU HAVE MY WORD 8.3% 12.01 11
8 12 ENJOYABLE SUCCESS 5.2% 19.16 13
9 13 WICKER 5.0% 20.01 12
10 9 STAR WIN 4.9% 20.51 9
11 14 THE JOY OF GIVING 3.7% 27.16 3
12 1 FORTUNE TRIPLE 3.3% 30.07 6
13 2 HAY RUN 2.3% 43.57 7
14 8 JOLLY FOREVER 2.2% 46.12 5
NUREMBERGFORTUNE PATROLSMART THINKERAMAZING AGILITYKUNGFUMASTER PANDA — wonSUCCESS ALLSTARSYOU HAVE MY WORDENJOYABLE SUCCESSWICKERSTAR WINTHE JOY OF GIVINGFORTUNE TRIPLEHAY RUNJOLLY FOREVER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 47

PLACE

3 19

5 19

14 139

QUINELLA

3,5 154.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 52.5

3,14 377

5,14 347

FORECAST

3,5 255

TIERCE

3,5,14 8,966

TRIO

3,5,14 1,733

FIRST 4

3,5,11,14 2,493

QUARTET

3,5,14,11 56,915

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 27