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Sha Tin · 2021-02-14

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD 1200m Course A 11 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-02-14 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WELLINGTON, ridden by Z Purton and trained by R Gibson, won by SH, with DUKE WAI second and ROMAN TURBO third. The 2.2 favourite SIGHT SUCCESS finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.08.56
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 WELLINGTON XB1 1.08.56 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · R Gibson 6 3.0 SH
2 1 DUKE WAI B/H C L Chau · P O'Sullivan 2 7.6 SH
3 10 ROMAN TURBO SR/TT A Badel · C S Shum 9 17.0 1
4 9 ALL IN MIND H/XB/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 5 34.0 2
5 4 SUPER WEALTHY H/XB1 C Y Ho · D J Whyte 7 51.0 2
6 3 SKY FIELD TT C Soumillon · C Fownes 11 8.2 2-3/4
7 11 SIGHT SUCCESS E K Teetan · J Size 4 2.2 2-3/4
8 7 BEAUTY RUSH E V Borges · J Size 3 62.0 3
9 8 RACING FIGHTER B/TT K C Leung · C H Yip 1 60.0 3-3/4
10 6 CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT CP/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 10 32.0 5
11 2 SHINING ACE B/TT B Shinn · J Size 8 60.0 10

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WELLINGTON2. DUKE WAI+0.1L3. ROMAN TURBO+1L4. ALL IN MIND+2L5. SUPER WEALTHY+2L6. SKY FIELD+2.75L7. SIGHT SUCCESS+2.75L8. BEAUTY RUSH+3L9. RACING FIGHTER+3.75L10. CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SIGHT SUCCESS (28.5%) finished 7th — the winner WELLINGTON was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 SIGHT SUCCESS 28.5% 3.50 7
2 5 WELLINGTON 26.4% 3.79 1
3 3 SKY FIELD 15.2% 6.57 6
4 1 DUKE WAI 9.3% 10.76 2
5 10 ROMAN TURBO 5.3% 19.04 3
6 6 CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT 4.0% 25.24 10
7 4 SUPER WEALTHY 3.8% 26.30 5
8 9 ALL IN MIND 3.1% 32.26 4
9 7 BEAUTY RUSH 2.2% 46.43 8
10 2 SHINING ACE 1.5% 68.91 11
11 8 RACING FIGHTER 0.8% 122.28 9
SIGHT SUCCESSWELLINGTON — wonSKY FIELDDUKE WAIROMAN TURBOCALIFORNIADEEPSHOTSUPER WEALTHYALL IN MINDBEAUTY RUSHSHINING ACERACING FIGHTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 30.5

PLACE

1 18.5

5 13

10 32

QUINELLA

1,5 112

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 41

1,10 103

5,10 63

FORECAST

5,1 244

TIERCE

5,1,10 1,302

TRIO

1,5,10 426

FIRST 4

1,5,9,10 1,327

QUARTET

5,1,10,9 14,847

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 13

A2

8TH DOUBLE

9/1 40

9/5 147.5