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Sha Tin · 2021-02-14

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.86
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 MASTER MONTARO Closed strongly B-/XB-/CP1 1.21.86 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · D A Hayes 8 8.5 1/2
2 0 HORSESAIN BOLT Closed strongly B/XB M L Yeung · D J Whyte 9 66.0 1/2
3 0 GREAT TREASURE Closed strongly H N Wong · Y S Tsui 11 25.0 1/2
4 0 INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · W Y So 1 3.6 3/4
5 0 THE CROWN Closed strongly H- C Soumillon · C Fownes 13 13.0 1-3/4
6 0 HIGHLY PROACTIVE H/P/TT A Badel · K W Lui 14 9.1 2
7 0 TRUE LEGEND Led early B M F Poon · F C Lor 12 6.9 2-1/2
8 0 CRAIG'S STAR B M Chadwick · C S Shum 7 10.0 2-1/2
9 0 BAY TIBBS K Teetan · D E Ferraris 2 43.0 2-3/4
10 0 TELECOM CHEETAH Closed strongly P/TT V Borges · C H Yip 4 25.0 5-1/4
11 0 BEAUTY LEGACY TT B Shinn · J Size 6 5.8 5-1/4
12 0 YO BEAUTY TT1 N Callan · A S Cruz 10 13.0 5-1/2
13 0 TURQUOISE ALPHA T Piccone · P O'Sullivan 5 60.0 8-1/2
14 0 SUPER DYNAMITE K C Leung · P F Yiu 3 73.0 15-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-02-14 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. MASTER MONTARO, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1/2, with HORSESAIN BOLT second and GREAT TREASURE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite INVINCIBLE MISSILE finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MASTER MONTARO—2. HORSESAIN BOLT+0.5L3. GREAT TREASURE+0.5L4. INVINCIBLE MISSILE+0.75L5. THE CROWN+1.75L6. HIGHLY PROACTIVE+2L7. TRUE LEGEND+2.5L8. CRAIG'S STAR+2.5L9. BAY TIBBS+2.75L10. TELECOM CHEETAH+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick THE CROWN (17.5%) finished 5th — the winner MASTER MONTARO was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 THE CROWN 17.5% 5.71 5
2 0 TRUE LEGEND 13.2% 7.59 7
3 0 MASTER MONTARO 12.3% 8.10 1
4 0 HIGHLY PROACTIVE 8.7% 11.45 6
5 0 BEAUTY LEGACY 8.6% 11.59 11
6 0 INVINCIBLE MISSILE 8.6% 11.67 4
7 0 CRAIG'S STAR 7.5% 13.38 8
8 0 YO BEAUTY 6.5% 15.34 12
9 0 BAY TIBBS 3.7% 26.99 9
10 0 GREAT TREASURE 3.3% 30.11 3
11 0 SUPER DYNAMITE 3.3% 30.70 14
12 0 HORSESAIN BOLT 2.4% 41.40 2
13 0 TELECOM CHEETAH 2.4% 42.55 10
14 0 TURQUOISE ALPHA 2.0% 50.47 13
THE CROWNTRUE LEGENDMASTER MONTARO — wonHIGHLY PROACTIVEBEAUTY LEGACYINVINCIBLE MISSILECRAIG'S STARYO BEAUTYBAY TIBBSGREAT TREASURESUPER DYNAMITEHORSESAIN BOLTTELECOM CHEETAHTURQUOISE ALPHA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 85.5

PLACE

7 28.5

11 61

12 154.5

QUINELLA

7,12 3,441.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,11 293.5

7,12 907.5

11,12 1,800

FORECAST

7,12 5,726

TIERCE

7,12,11 69,705

TRIO

7,11,12 18,774

FIRST 4

6,7,11,12 12,513

QUARTET

7,12,11,6 408,696

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 23

A1 —

6TH DOUBLE

3/7 227

3/12 895.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,4,12/3,10,13/Any Combination 2,733