沙田 · 2021-02-14
第 7場
2021-02-14沙田第7場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由C Y Ho策騎、D A Hayes訓練的MASTER MONTARO勝出，贏出1/2。HORSESAIN BOLT獲得亞軍；GREAT TREASURE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.6倍大熱門INVINCIBLE MISSILE跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | MASTER MONTARO 後段發力 B-/XB-/CP1 1.21.86 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Y Ho · D A Hayes | C Y Ho | D A Hayes | 8 | 8.5 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 12 | HORSESAIN BOLT 後段發力 B/XB M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 9 | 66.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | GREAT TREASURE 後段發力 H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 11 | 25.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE 後段發力 B/TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 1 | 3.6 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 2 | THE CROWN 後段發力 H- C Soumillon · C Fownes | C Soumillon | C Fownes | 13 | 13.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | HIGHLY PROACTIVE H/P/TT A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 14 | 9.1 | 2 |
| 7 | 14 | TRUE LEGEND 早段領放 B M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 12 | 6.9 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | CRAIG'S STAR B M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 7 | 10.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 9 | 9 | BAY TIBBS K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 2 | 43.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 10 | 13 | TELECOM CHEETAH 後段發力 P/TT V Borges · C H Yip | V Borges | C H Yip | 4 | 25.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 1 | BEAUTY LEGACY TT B Shinn · J Size | B Shinn | J Size | 6 | 5.8 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 5 | YO BEAUTY TT1 N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 10 | 13.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 13 | 10 | TURQUOISE ALPHA T Piccone · P O'Sullivan | T Piccone | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 60.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 14 | 4 | SUPER DYNAMITE K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 3 | 73.0 | 15-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | THE CROWN | 17.5% | 5.71 | 5 |
| 2 | 14 | TRUE LEGEND | 13.2% | 7.59 | 7 |
| 3 | 7 | MASTER MONTARO | 12.3% | 8.10 | 1 |
| 4 | 3 | HIGHLY PROACTIVE | 8.7% | 11.45 | 6 |
| 5 | 1 | BEAUTY LEGACY | 8.6% | 11.59 | 11 |
| 6 | 6 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE | 8.6% | 11.67 | 4 |
| 7 | 8 | CRAIG'S STAR | 7.5% | 13.38 | 8 |
| 8 | 5 | YO BEAUTY | 6.5% | 15.34 | 12 |
| 9 | 9 | BAY TIBBS | 3.7% | 26.99 | 9 |
| 10 | 11 | GREAT TREASURE | 3.3% | 30.11 | 3 |
| 11 | 4 | SUPER DYNAMITE | 3.3% | 30.70 | 14 |
| 12 | 12 | HORSESAIN BOLT | 2.4% | 41.40 | 2 |
| 13 | 13 | TELECOM CHEETAH | 2.4% | 42.55 | 10 |
| 14 | 10 | TURQUOISE ALPHA | 2.0% | 50.47 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 85.5
PLACE
7 28.5
11 61
12 154.5
QUINELLA
7,12 3,441.5
QUINELLA PLACE
7,11 293.5
7,12 907.5
11,12 1,800
FORECAST
7,12 5,726
TIERCE
7,12,11 69,705
TRIO
7,11,12 18,774
FIRST 4
6,7,11,12 12,513
QUARTET
7,12,11,6 408,696
全部彩池（另 3 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 23
6TH DOUBLE
3/7 227
3/12 895.5
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,4,12/3,10,13/Any Combination 2,733