沙田 · 2021-02-14
第 10場
2021-02-14沙田第10場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由M Chadwick策騎、C H Yip訓練的TRUST ME勝出，贏出1/2。JUNEAU PARK獲得亞軍；IMA SINGLE MAN獲得季軍。4.0倍大熱門WHEN YOU BELIEVE跑獲第7名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | TRUST ME H 1.09.18 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 14 | 7.6 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 8 | JUNEAU PARK T Piccone · J Size | T Piccone | J Size | 8 | 10.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | IMA SINGLE MAN CP/H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 6 | 10.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | SUPER DOBBIN B C Schofield · A T Millard | C Schofield | A T Millard | 13 | 4.7 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | MAJESTIC STAR V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 4 | 77.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 2 | 5.8 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 1 | WHEN YOU BELIEVE K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 3 | 4.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 11 | GOOD BEAUTY B/TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 7 | 17.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 5 | PRIVATE ROCKET CP/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 9 | 11.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 10 | UNIVERSAL HERO B- H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 12 | 269.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 4 | KAI XIN DRAGON B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 10 | 16.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 7 | SMART FOLKS XB/B2 M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 5 | 117.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 13 | 13 | NOIR RIDER TT- C Wong · T P Yung | C Wong | T P Yung | 11 | 258.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 14 | 12 | EXCEED THE STARS B/XB1 H T Mo · C S Shum | H T Mo | C S Shum | 1 | 44.0 | 14 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER | 15.6% | 6.43 | 6 |
| 2 | 3 | SUPER DOBBIN | 13.4% | 7.48 | 4 |
| 3 | 8 | JUNEAU PARK | 11.7% | 8.56 | 2 |
| 4 | 5 | PRIVATE ROCKET | 11.3% | 8.85 | 9 |
| 5 | 1 | WHEN YOU BELIEVE | 10.1% | 9.87 | 7 |
| 6 | 2 | IMA SINGLE MAN | 9.7% | 10.30 | 3 |
| 7 | 14 | TRUST ME | 8.7% | 11.52 | 1 |
| 8 | 11 | GOOD BEAUTY | 8.2% | 12.19 | 8 |
| 9 | 4 | KAI XIN DRAGON | 4.5% | 22.41 | 11 |
| 10 | 9 | MAJESTIC STAR | 3.4% | 29.04 | 5 |
| 11 | 12 | EXCEED THE STARS | 1.6% | 63.90 | 14 |
| 12 | 7 | SMART FOLKS | 0.8% | 120.11 | 12 |
| 13 | 13 | NOIR RIDER | 0.6% | 168.09 | 13 |
| 14 | 10 | UNIVERSAL HERO | 0.5% | 204.44 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
14 76
PLACE
2 37
8 33.5
14 24.5
QUINELLA
8,14 358.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,8 203
2,14 147.5
8,14 126
FORECAST
14,8 805
TIERCE
14,8,2 12,179
TRIO
2,8,14 1,577
FIRST 4
2,3,8,14 2,130
QUARTET
14,8,2,3 62,683
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 25.5
A1 —
9TH DOUBLE
5/8 67.5
5/14 519