沙田 · 2021-02-14
第 11場
2021-02-14沙田第11場，Class 3，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、K H Ting訓練的SUPER FOOTBALL勝出，贏出1-1/4。PRECISE EXPRESS獲得亞軍；RIGHT CHOICE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以3.0倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SUPER FOOTBALL 後段發力 1.34.73 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · K H Ting | Z Purton | K H Ting | 10 | 3.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 6 | PRECISE EXPRESS 後段發力 K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 2 | 16.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 7 | RIGHT CHOICE B B Shinn · F C Lor | B Shinn | F C Lor | 13 | 110.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 5 | HELENE WISDOM STAR 後段發力 H/TT C Soumillon · A S Cruz | C Soumillon | A S Cruz | 11 | 4.8 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 14 | LEADING FORTUNE 後段發力 V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 12 | 7.8 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 13 | KING'S CAPITAL XB C Schofield · D A Hayes | C Schofield | D A Hayes | 6 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 11 | BEAUTY DAY B/H M F Poon · T P Yung | M F Poon | T P Yung | 5 | 12.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 4 | SACRED IBIS 後段發力 XB K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 1 | 8.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 12 | CASIMIRO M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 8 | 13.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | CHEVALIER PRINCE B-/V1/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 14 | 18.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 10 | HARMONY WIN WIN 早段領放 XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 9 | 101.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 3 | BLASTOISE SR-/CP1 N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 7 | 63.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 13 | 9 | FANTASTIC SHOW 後段發力 B T Piccone · Y S Tsui | T Piccone | Y S Tsui | 3 | 99.0 | 13 |
| 14 | 1 | VITRALITE XB A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 4 | 48.0 | 13-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SUPER FOOTBALL | 18.5% | 5.41 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | HELENE WISDOM STAR | 17.0% | 5.89 | 4 |
| 3 | 8 | CHEVALIER PRINCE | 16.1% | 6.22 | 10 |
| 4 | 4 | SACRED IBIS | 9.6% | 10.46 | 8 |
| 5 | 11 | BEAUTY DAY | 7.6% | 13.08 | 7 |
| 6 | 12 | CASIMIRO | 5.7% | 17.66 | 9 |
| 7 | 14 | LEADING FORTUNE | 5.1% | 19.54 | 5 |
| 8 | 13 | KING'S CAPITAL | 4.9% | 20.25 | 6 |
| 9 | 6 | PRECISE EXPRESS | 4.3% | 23.35 | 2 |
| 10 | 1 | VITRALITE | 3.1% | 32.72 | 14 |
| 11 | 3 | BLASTOISE | 2.8% | 36.18 | 12 |
| 12 | 7 | RIGHT CHOICE | 2.2% | 44.49 | 2 |
| 13 | 10 | HARMONY WIN WIN | 2.2% | 45.38 | 11 |
| 14 | 9 | FANTASTIC SHOW | 1.0% | 103.51 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 30.5
PLACE
2 15
6 50.5
7 222
QUINELLA
2,6 174
2,7 818
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 131
2,7 456.5
6,7 1,793.5
FORECAST
2,6 207
2,7 1,133
TIERCE
2,6,7 10,336
2,7,6 12,555
TRIO
2,6,7 7,424
FIRST 4
2,5,6,7 10,686
QUARTET
2,6,7,5 101,235
2,7,6,5 108,675
全部彩池（另 5 項）
10TH DOUBLE
14/2 351.5
14/6 196.5
14/7 728
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 18.5
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,8,14/2,6,7 3,283,556
SIX UP
3/7/9/5/14/2 227,981
3,10/7,12/6,9/1,5/8,14/2,6,7 8,942
2 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
5/14/2 1,585
5/14/6 895
5/14/7 3,863