Happy Valley · 2021-02-17
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-17 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. A LA KING, ridden by N Callan and trained by K H Ting, won by 1-3/4, with JUST NOT LISTENING second and ERNEST FEELING third. The 2.0 favourite WINS ALL finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | A LA KING 1.09.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · K H Ting | N Callan | K H Ting | 1 | 7.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 1 | JUST NOT LISTENING V K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | 4 | 14.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 3 | ERNEST FEELING C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 2 | 32.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 8 | WINS ALL TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 10 | 2.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | DOLLAR REWARD TT A Hamelin · C S Shum | A Hamelin | C S Shum | 11 | 9.5 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 11 | OURGOLDENRULES B/XB A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 8 | 103.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 7 | GALLANT LEGACY SR/TT T Piccone · C W Chang | T Piccone | C W Chang | 7 | 5.4 | 4 |
| 8 | 12 | VECTOR CP-/H/B1/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 9 | 14.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | WIN TECH K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 63.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 4 | FORZA SPEEDO M F Poon · Y S Tsui | M F Poon | Y S Tsui | 12 | 179.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 9 | ON EXCEL STAR V Borges · C H Yip | V Borges | C H Yip | 3 | 15.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 5 | ISLAND SUNSHINE V C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 5 | 33.0 | 12 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | WINS ALL | 37.1% | 2.69 | 4 |
| 2 | 9 | ON EXCEL STAR | 12.9% | 7.76 | 11 |
| 3 | 10 | DOLLAR REWARD | 9.5% | 10.50 | 5 |
| 4 | 7 | GALLANT LEGACY | 9.4% | 10.66 | 7 |
| 5 | 3 | ERNEST FEELING | 8.6% | 11.60 | 3 |
| 6 | 2 | A LA KING | 6.7% | 15.03 | 1 |
| 7 | 5 | ISLAND SUNSHINE | 5.5% | 18.19 | 12 |
| 8 | 1 | JUST NOT LISTENING | 4.5% | 22.41 | 2 |
| 9 | 12 | VECTOR | 2.5% | 39.51 | 8 |
| 10 | 11 | OURGOLDENRULES | 1.5% | 64.78 | 6 |
| 11 | 6 | WIN TECH | 1.0% | 100.52 | 9 |
| 12 | 4 | FORZA SPEEDO | 0.8% | 125.42 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 76.5
PLACE
1 36.5
2 23.5
3 61.5
QUINELLA
1,2 578.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 151.5
1,3 554
2,3 222.5
FORECAST
2,1 1,066
TIERCE
2,1,3 14,821
TRIO
1,2,3 3,064
FIRST 4
1,2,3,8 1,394
QUARTET
2,1,3,8 49,280
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 33
A1 —
A3 —