Happy Valley · 2021-02-17
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-17 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. MERCURIAL, ridden by C L Chau and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/4, with PLIKCLONE second and SUNNY BABY third. The 3.5 favourite PEAK TO PEAK finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | MERCURIAL XB-/TT2 1.10.15 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · A S Cruz | C L Chau | A S Cruz | 11 | 4.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 11 | PLIKCLONE B Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 7 | 4.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 6 | SUNNY BABY M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 1 | 32.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | E HONEY C Schofield · C Fownes | C Schofield | C Fownes | 2 | 47.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 5 | PEAK TO PEAK SR K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 4 | 3.5 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 1 | WOOD ON FIRE H/V/TT K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 3 | 8.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 12 | M M JOHNNY B A Badel · Y S Tsui | A Badel | Y S Tsui | 12 | 63.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 4 | MOONLUCK C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 8 | 29.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 3 | AMAZING BOY TT1 H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 10 | 45.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 10 | GLADSOME RYDER V Borges · R Gibson | V Borges | R Gibson | 9 | 83.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 8 | DAZZLING FEELING TT B Shinn · D E Ferraris | B Shinn | D E Ferraris | 5 | 13.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 2 | HONEST WAY CP/TT N Callan · K L Man | N Callan | K L Man | 6 | 7.5 | 11-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | PLIKCLONE | 28.4% | 3.52 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | WOOD ON FIRE | 19.2% | 5.22 | 6 |
| 3 | 5 | PEAK TO PEAK | 14.3% | 7.00 | 5 |
| 4 | 2 | HONEST WAY | 9.4% | 10.61 | 12 |
| 5 | 7 | MERCURIAL | 6.0% | 16.80 | 1 |
| 6 | 8 | DAZZLING FEELING | 4.4% | 22.79 | 11 |
| 7 | 12 | M M JOHNNY | 4.2% | 23.95 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 | E HONEY | 3.7% | 26.97 | 4 |
| 9 | 6 | SUNNY BABY | 3.5% | 28.63 | 3 |
| 10 | 3 | AMAZING BOY | 2.8% | 35.72 | 9 |
| 11 | 4 | MOONLUCK | 2.6% | 38.61 | 8 |
| 12 | 10 | GLADSOME RYDER | 1.6% | 61.03 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 43.5
PLACE
6 90
7 15.5
11 18.5
QUINELLA
7,11 113
QUINELLA PLACE
6,7 264
6,11 249.5
7,11 46
FORECAST
7,11 228
TIERCE
7,11,6 5,604
TRIO
6,7,11 2,003
FIRST 4
6,7,9,11 10,007
QUARTET
7,11,6,9 118,104
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 20.5
A1 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
10/7 2,052
10/11 329.5