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Happy Valley · 2021-02-17

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD 2200m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 2.16.48
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 CHARITY FUN Closed strongly TT 2.16.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C S Shum 1 4.8 4
2 0 XIANG BAI QI B V Borges · D E Ferraris 3 15.0 4
3 0 ARROGANT Closed strongly B/TT N Callan · C Fownes 9 16.0 4-1/2
4 0 VINCY Closed strongly V-/XB/TT T Piccone · D J Whyte 12 13.0 5-1/4
5 0 CLEMENT LEGEND B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 4 5.7 5-1/2
6 0 GOD OF DRAGON H/XB/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 10 9.3 5-3/4
7 0 MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly V K C Leung · C H Yip 5 26.0 6
8 0 NAMJONG PLUS Closed strongly B Shinn · Y S Tsui 8 44.0 6
9 0 FLYING MIGHTY CP1 C Schofield · D J Hall 6 6.7 6-3/4
10 0 ENRICHMENT Closed strongly B A Hamelin · J Size 11 13.0 7-1/2
11 0 STIMULATION B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 7 7.7 9-1/4
12 0 HAPPY MY BROTHER Led early B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 2 9.2 13

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-17 was Class 3 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. CHARITY FUN, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C S Shum, won by 4, with XIANG BAI QI second and ARROGANT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.8 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHARITY FUN—2. XIANG BAI QI+4L3. ARROGANT+4.5L4. VINCY+5.25L5. CLEMENT LEGEND+5.5L6. GOD OF DRAGON+5.75L7. MURRAY'S PARTNERS+6L8. NAMJONG PLUS+6L9. FLYING MIGHTY+6.75L10. ENRICHMENT+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick CLEMENT LEGEND (23.2%) finished 5th — the winner CHARITY FUN was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 CLEMENT LEGEND 23.2% 4.32 5
2 0 CHARITY FUN 14.6% 6.84 1
3 0 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 9.1% 11.03 7
4 0 HAPPY MY BROTHER 8.9% 11.20 12
5 0 STIMULATION 8.3% 12.12 11
6 0 ARROGANT 7.7% 13.01 3
7 0 FLYING MIGHTY 7.3% 13.76 9
8 0 GOD OF DRAGON 6.0% 16.71 6
9 0 XIANG BAI QI 4.4% 22.65 2
10 0 ENRICHMENT 4.3% 23.53 10
11 0 VINCY 3.9% 25.62 4
12 0 NAMJONG PLUS 2.5% 40.63 8
CLEMENT LEGENDCHARITY FUN — wonMURRAY'S PARTNERSHAPPY MY BROTHERSTIMULATIONARROGANTFLYING MIGHTYGOD OF DRAGONXIANG BAI QIENRICHMENTVINCYNAMJONG PLUS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 48

PLACE

4 48

7 21.5

12 45.5

QUINELLA

7,12 406

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 138.5

4,12 388

7,12 142.5

FORECAST

7,12 1,059

TIERCE

7,12,4 9,391

TRIO

4,7,12 1,743

FIRST 4

4,6,7,12 7,623

QUARTET

7,12,4,6 139,569

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 26

5TH DOUBLE

1/7 76

1/12 92.5