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Happy Valley · 2021-02-17

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD 2200m Course C 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-17 was Class 3 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. CHARITY FUN, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C S Shum, won by 4, with XIANG BAI QI second and ARROGANT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 2.16.48
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 CHARITY FUN Closed strongly TT 2.16.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C S Shum 1 4.8 4
2 12 XIANG BAI QI B V Borges · D E Ferraris 3 15.0 4
3 4 ARROGANT Closed strongly B/TT N Callan · C Fownes 9 16.0 4-1/2
4 6 VINCY Closed strongly V-/XB/TT T Piccone · D J Whyte 12 13.0 5-1/4
5 11 CLEMENT LEGEND B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 4 5.7 5-1/2
6 5 GOD OF DRAGON H/XB/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 10 9.3 5-3/4
7 9 MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly V K C Leung · C H Yip 5 26.0 6
8 1 NAMJONG PLUS Closed strongly B Shinn · Y S Tsui 8 44.0 6
9 8 FLYING MIGHTY CP1 C Schofield · D J Hall 6 6.7 6-3/4
10 2 ENRICHMENT Closed strongly B A Hamelin · J Size 11 13.0 7-1/2
11 10 STIMULATION B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 7 7.7 9-1/4
12 3 HAPPY MY BROTHER Led early B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 2 9.2 13

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHARITY FUN2. XIANG BAI QI+4L3. ARROGANT+4.5L4. VINCY+5.25L5. CLEMENT LEGEND+5.5L6. GOD OF DRAGON+5.75L7. MURRAY'S PARTNERS+6L8. NAMJONG PLUS+6L9. FLYING MIGHTY+6.75L10. ENRICHMENT+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick CLEMENT LEGEND (23.2%) finished 5th — the winner CHARITY FUN was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 CLEMENT LEGEND 23.2% 4.32 5
2 7 CHARITY FUN 14.6% 6.84 1
3 9 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 9.1% 11.03 7
4 3 HAPPY MY BROTHER 8.9% 11.20 12
5 10 STIMULATION 8.3% 12.12 11
6 4 ARROGANT 7.7% 13.01 3
7 8 FLYING MIGHTY 7.3% 13.76 9
8 5 GOD OF DRAGON 6.0% 16.71 6
9 12 XIANG BAI QI 4.4% 22.65 2
10 2 ENRICHMENT 4.3% 23.53 10
11 6 VINCY 3.9% 25.62 4
12 1 NAMJONG PLUS 2.5% 40.63 8
CLEMENT LEGENDCHARITY FUN — wonMURRAY'S PARTNERSHAPPY MY BROTHERSTIMULATIONARROGANTFLYING MIGHTYGOD OF DRAGONXIANG BAI QIENRICHMENTVINCYNAMJONG PLUS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 48

PLACE

4 48

7 21.5

12 45.5

QUINELLA

7,12 406

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 138.5

4,12 388

7,12 142.5

FORECAST

7,12 1,059

TIERCE

7,12,4 9,391

TRIO

4,7,12 1,743

FIRST 4

4,6,7,12 7,623

QUARTET

7,12,4,6 139,569

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 26

5TH DOUBLE

1/7 76

1/12 92.5