Happy Valley · 2021-02-17
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-17 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. JOY AVENUE, ridden by M F Poon and trained by C H Yip, won by 1-1/4, with AFTER ME second and FLYING MONKEY third. The 4.0 favourite DR EQ finished 9th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | JOY AVENUE XB- 0.57.52 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 4 | 31.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 3 | AFTER ME B B Shinn · D E Ferraris | B Shinn | D E Ferraris | 6 | 18.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 11 | FLYING MONKEY BO/TT K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | 7 | 6.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | VIVA MAMA TT K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 10 | 4.3 | 2 |
| 5 | 2 | DR PROACTIVE C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 9 | 30.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | ARDENODE TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 11 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 4 | READY CONQUEROR B C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 2 | 4.2 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | PRAWN YEAH YEAH B/TT C L Chau · R Gibson | C L Chau | R Gibson | 12 | 40.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 1 | DR EQ H/TT A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 1 | 4.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 8 | EVERBRAVE B N Callan · K L Man | N Callan | K L Man | 3 | 12.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 7 | I'M THE CONQUIST B H N Wong · P O'Sullivan | H N Wong | P O'Sullivan | 8 | 66.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 12 | TARGET FINDER H/XB/B2 H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 5 | 92.0 | 6-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | READY CONQUEROR | 23.4% | 4.28 | 7 |
| 2 | 1 | DR EQ | 17.8% | 5.62 | 9 |
| 3 | 9 | VIVA MAMA | 12.6% | 7.94 | 4 |
| 4 | 5 | ARDENODE | 8.9% | 11.26 | 6 |
| 5 | 8 | EVERBRAVE | 8.2% | 12.27 | 10 |
| 6 | 6 | PRAWN YEAH YEAH | 7.1% | 14.04 | 8 |
| 7 | 2 | DR PROACTIVE | 5.5% | 18.26 | 5 |
| 8 | 11 | FLYING MONKEY | 5.2% | 19.17 | 3 |
| 9 | 12 | TARGET FINDER | 3.9% | 25.60 | 12 |
| 10 | 10 | JOY AVENUE | 3.1% | 32.00 | 1 |
| 11 | 3 | AFTER ME | 2.4% | 41.12 | 2 |
| 12 | 7 | I'M THE CONQUIST | 1.9% | 51.44 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 315.5
PLACE
3 51.5
10 77.5
11 17.5
QUINELLA
3,10 2,942.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,10 789
3,11 197.5
10,11 281
FORECAST
10,3 4,168
TIERCE
10,3,11 42,727
TRIO
3,10,11 8,174
FIRST 4
3,9,10,11 4,642
QUARTET
10,3,11,9 165,315
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
12/3 174
12/10 2,099.5
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 31
A1 —