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Happy Valley · 2021-02-17

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.09.71
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 RED BRICK FIGHTER B 1.09.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · D J Hall 3 5.9 2
2 0 VICTORY IN HAND BR/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 3.7 2
3 0 MASTER ALBERT B/E/TT A Hamelin · W Y So 7 14.0 2
4 0 HOT CHILI PEPPER CP-/B2/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum 12 16.0 4-1/4
5 0 KING'S TROOPER B K Teetan · P F Yiu 2 9.1 4-1/4
6 0 GOOD LUCK MONEY K C Leung · C H Yip 10 89.0 4-1/2
7 0 EVERYONE'S VICTORY Z Purton · F C Lor 5 6.6 5
8 0 NOBLE BOYZ C Schofield · D J Whyte 9 25.0 6-1/2
9 0 AEROSONIC P/TT V Borges · J Size 4 44.0 7-1/2
10 0 SURE WINNER B1 A Badel · K L Man 1 3.8 7-3/4
11 0 CHAMP PATROL H- T Piccone · C Fownes 8 29.0 8-1/2
12 0 COOLCELEB PC/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 11 70.0 8-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-17 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. RED BRICK FIGHTER, ridden by M F Poon and trained by D J Hall, won by 2, with VICTORY IN HAND second and MASTER ALBERT third. The 3.7 favourite VICTORY IN HAND finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RED BRICK FIGHTER—2. VICTORY IN HAND+2L3. MASTER ALBERT+2L4. HOT CHILI PEPPER+4.25L5. KING'S TROOPER+4.25L6. GOOD LUCK MONEY+4.5L7. EVERYONE'S VICTORY+5L8. NOBLE BOYZ+6.5L9. AEROSONIC+7.5L10. SURE WINNER+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick RED BRICK FIGHTER (23.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 RED BRICK FIGHTER 23.1% 4.33 1
2 0 EVERYONE'S VICTORY 20.1% 4.98 7
3 0 HOT CHILI PEPPER 12.4% 8.08 4
4 0 VICTORY IN HAND 10.3% 9.74 2
5 0 NOBLE BOYZ 6.1% 16.31 8
6 0 CHAMP PATROL 6.0% 16.77 11
7 0 AEROSONIC 5.5% 18.24 9
8 0 SURE WINNER 4.5% 22.23 10
9 0 MASTER ALBERT 4.1% 24.17 3
10 0 KING'S TROOPER 3.8% 26.16 5
11 0 COOLCELEB 2.7% 37.07 12
12 0 GOOD LUCK MONEY 1.5% 68.55 6
RED BRICK FIGHTER — wonEVERYONE'S VICTORYHOT CHILI PEPPERVICTORY IN HANDNOBLE BOYZCHAMP PATROLAEROSONICSURE WINNERMASTER ALBERTKING'S TROOPERCOOLCELEBGOOD LUCK MONEY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 59.5

PLACE

2 15.5

4 32

12 18

QUINELLA

2,12 108.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 78

2,12 44

4,12 134

FORECAST

12,2 210

TIERCE

12,2,4 1,958

TRIO

2,4,12 388

FIRST 4

2,4,10,12 995

QUARTET

12,2,4,10 19,180

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

2/2 51

2/12 431

3 PICK 1

A2 25.5

A1 —

A3 —