Happy Valley · 2021-02-17
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-17 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. IGNITING, ridden by M F Poon and trained by K W Lui, won by 3/4, with WIND N GRASS second and STANLEY PARK third. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | IGNITING B 1.09.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 1 | 2.2 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 5 | WIND N GRASS TT Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 3 | 3.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 1 | STANLEY PARK B C L Chau · D E Ferraris | C L Chau | D E Ferraris | 10 | 14.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | FALCON TURBO B/XB C Wong · A T Millard | C Wong | A T Millard | 2 | 20.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 9 | CLASSIC POSH H T Mo · D J Hall | H T Mo | D J Hall | 4 | 49.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 6 | DIVINE REGULUS TT T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 5 | 23.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | LUCKY QUALITY K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 7 | 22.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 12 | CHEERFUL LEADER B/XB V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 11 | 28.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 3 | BABY B C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 6 | 12.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | SIMPLY FLUKE CP/H/XB A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 8 | 17.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 8 | HARRIER JET B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 42.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 7 | FLASHCARD B/TT K C Leung · A S Cruz | K C Leung | A S Cruz | 12 | 71.0 | 8-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | IGNITING | 38.7% | 2.59 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | WIND N GRASS | 19.9% | 5.01 | 2 |
| 3 | 9 | CLASSIC POSH | 7.6% | 13.09 | 5 |
| 4 | 11 | SIMPLY FLUKE | 6.4% | 15.69 | 10 |
| 5 | 3 | BABY | 5.5% | 18.23 | 9 |
| 6 | 1 | STANLEY PARK | 5.2% | 19.17 | 3 |
| 7 | 12 | CHEERFUL LEADER | 4.3% | 23.24 | 8 |
| 8 | 10 | LUCKY QUALITY | 4.3% | 23.45 | 7 |
| 9 | 8 | HARRIER JET | 2.6% | 37.81 | 11 |
| 10 | 4 | FALCON TURBO | 2.4% | 41.21 | 4 |
| 11 | 6 | DIVINE REGULUS | 2.2% | 44.79 | 6 |
| 12 | 7 | FLASHCARD | 0.8% | 123.52 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 22.5
PLACE
1 36.5
2 12.5
5 14
QUINELLA
2,5 37.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 57.5
1,5 74
2,5 19
FORECAST
2,5 73
TIERCE
2,5,1 527
TRIO
1,2,5 167
FIRST 4
1,2,4,5 344
QUARTET
2,5,1,4 3,451
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 13
A2 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,9,10/1,2,5 7,011
8TH DOUBLE
1/2 68
1/5 24
SIX UP
7/1/7/2/1/2 36,158
7,11/1,10/7,12/1,2/1,9/2,5 1,931
9 [M F Poon] —
TREBLE
2/1/2 1,491
2/1/5 508