Happy Valley · 2021-02-17
Race 5
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | SAVAQUIN Closed strongly 1.39.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 6 | 1.9 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | FARSHAD Closed strongly CP K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 2 | 9.3 | 1 |
| 3 | 0 | GIFT OF LIFELINE Closed strongly B C Y Ho · A T Millard | C Y Ho | A T Millard | 5 | 5.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | LOOKING GREAT N Callan · F C Lor | N Callan | F C Lor | 7 | 14.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 0 | TALENTI B1 C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 3 | 46.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 0 | SURREALISM Closed strongly B B Shinn · D E Ferraris | B Shinn | D E Ferraris | 10 | 34.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | SMOOTHIES Led early B/TT C Schofield · C S Shum | C Schofield | C S Shum | 1 | 8.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 0 | BEAUTY SPARK B/TT M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 9 | 35.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 0 | GREEN REIGN K C Leung · C Fownes | K C Leung | C Fownes | 8 | 12.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 0 | SUNNY LAD B/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 4 | 26.0 | 10 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-17 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SAVAQUIN, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 1, with FARSHAD second and GIFT OF LIFELINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.9 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | SAVAQUIN | 23.4% | 4.28 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | LOOKING GREAT | 15.0% | 6.64 | 4 |
| 3 | 0 | SMOOTHIES | 12.4% | 8.04 | 7 |
| 4 | 0 | GIFT OF LIFELINE | 11.3% | 8.81 | 3 |
| 5 | 0 | FARSHAD | 9.8% | 10.21 | 2 |
| 6 | 0 | SUNNY LAD | 8.8% | 11.43 | 10 |
| 7 | 0 | BEAUTY SPARK | 8.3% | 12.03 | 8 |
| 8 | 0 | GREEN REIGN | 4.4% | 22.65 | 9 |
| 9 | 0 | SURREALISM | 3.5% | 28.18 | 6 |
| 10 | 0 | TALENTI | 3.0% | 33.79 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 19.5
PLACE
1 12.5
3 14.5
10 24.5
QUINELLA
1,10 81
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 25.5
1,10 35
3,10 60.5
FORECAST
1,10 148
TIERCE
1,10,3 598
TRIO
1,3,10 130
FIRST 4
1,3,5,10 295
QUARTET
1,10,3,5 3,726
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
6,7,11/1,3,10 26,719
3 PICK 1
A1 15.5
A2 —
A3 —
4TH DOUBLE
7/1 114
7/10 110.5