Sha Tin · 2021-03-13

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 13 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-13 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SERIOUS LIAISON, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by NOSE, with BAY TIBBS second and INVINCIBLE MISSILE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite ROMANTIC COMBO finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.21.89

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	9	SERIOUS LIAISON Closed strongly TT 1.21.89 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes	C Y Ho	C Fownes	9	118 lb	15.0	NOSE
2	5	BAY TIBBS Closed strongly K Teetan · D E Ferraris	K Teetan	D E Ferraris	2	123 lb	15.0	NOSE
3	1	INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · W Y So	Z Purton	W Y So	6	133 lb	6.3	N
4	6	HORSESAIN BOLT Closed strongly B/XB M L Yeung · D J Whyte	M L Yeung	D J Whyte	8	123 lb	20.0	1-1/4
5	13	SMART FOLKS Closed strongly B H N Wong · C W Chang	H N Wong	C W Chang	13	113 lb	253.0	1-1/2
6	4	ALL FOR SOUTH Led early B K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	12	127 lb	46.0	1-1/2
7	7	KA YING EXCELLENT CP/TT N Callan · A S Cruz	N Callan	A S Cruz	7	123 lb	12.0	1-3/4
8	12	ROMANTIC COMBO B/TT J Moreira · C S Shum	J Moreira	C S Shum	1	116 lb	2.1	2-1/4
9	10	CLASSIC POSH H T Mo · D J Hall	H T Mo	D J Hall	5	113 lb	55.0	2-1/2
10	11	GOOD BEAUTY B/TT M F Poon · K L Man	M F Poon	K L Man	3	114 lb	20.0	3-1/4
11	2	TEMPEST EXPRESS E/TT A Hamelin · J Size	A Hamelin	J Size	11	131 lb	4.8	5
12	8	FANTASTIC SHOW Closed strongly B H W Lai · Y S Tsui	H W Lai	Y S Tsui	10	119 lb	194.0	5-3/4
13	3	VITRALITE XB A Badel · K W Lui	A Badel	K W Lui	4	129 lb	49.0	6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick ROMANTIC COMBO (40.4%) finished 8th — the winner SERIOUS LIAISON was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	12	ROMANTIC COMBO	40.4%	2.48	8	2.1
2	1	INVINCIBLE MISSILE	14.4%	6.93	3	6.3
3	2	TEMPEST EXPRESS	13.4%	7.46	11	4.8
4	4	ALL FOR SOUTH	6.4%	15.73	6	46.0
5	7	KA YING EXCELLENT	4.8%	20.68	7	12.0
6	10	CLASSIC POSH	4.8%	20.92	9	55.0
7	6	HORSESAIN BOLT	4.2%	24.05	4	20.0
8	11	GOOD BEAUTY	4.0%	24.86	10	20.0
9	5	BAY TIBBS	3.6%	27.53	2	15.0
10	9	SERIOUS LIAISON	1.8%	56.71	1	15.0
11	3	VITRALITE	0.9%	109.30	13	49.0
12	8	FANTASTIC SHOW	0.8%	121.99	12	194.0
13	13	SMART FOLKS	0.5%	204.49	5	253.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 151

PLACE

1 18

5 44

9 38.5

QUINELLA

5,9 1,171.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 139.5

1,9 127

5,9 279.5

FORECAST

9,5 1,779

TIERCE

9,5,1 11,264

TRIO

1,5,9 2,168

FIRST 4

1,5,6,9 3,231

QUARTET

9,5,1,6 81,355

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 31

A3 —

A1 —

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,5/1,5,9 245,126

9TH DOUBLE

3/5 79.5

3/9 299.5

SIX UP

3,8/2,7/4,9/1,9/3,5/5,9 7,006

8/2/9/9/3/9 177,661

2 [Z Purton] —

TREBLE

9/3/5 528

9/3/9 2,015

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