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Sha Tin · 2021-03-13

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 0.56.71
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 KILLER BEE TT1 0.56.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · C Fownes 9 2.5 2-1/4
2 0 JADE PHOENIX B M F Poon · F C Lor 7 9.1 2-1/4
3 0 TAKE WHAT YOU NEED B-/V1 K Teetan · D J Whyte 3 7.4 2-1/4
4 0 GO GO SIXTEEN C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 23.0 3-1/4
5 0 SIGHT HERO CP C Schofield · D A Hayes 4 12.0 3-3/4
6 0 BALTIC WHISPER B/TT J Moreira · C S Shum 14 4.9 4
7 0 DURHAM STAR M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 2 12.0 4-1/4
8 0 DARCI JOY N Callan · P F Yiu 12 15.0 5
9 0 ZACIAN C Wong · A T Millard 11 98.0 5-1/4
10 0 LUCKY ONE TT1 A Badel · W Y So 13 52.0 5-3/4
11 0 HOLYSHOWCASING B1 H N Wong · D E Ferraris 5 246.0 6-1/2
12 0 QIPAO BOSS H T Mo · D J Hall 8 19.0 6-3/4
13 0 EASY FORTUNE M L Yeung · K H Ting 1 61.0 8
14 0 STORMTROUPER CP-/XB1/TT- A Hamelin · C H Yip 10 76.0 9

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-13 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. KILLER BEE, ridden by B Shinn and trained by C Fownes, won by 2-1/4, with JADE PHOENIX second and TAKE WHAT YOU NEED third. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KILLER BEE—2. JADE PHOENIX+2.25L3. TAKE WHAT YOU NEED+2.25L4. GO GO SIXTEEN+3.25L5. SIGHT HERO+3.75L6. BALTIC WHISPER+4L7. DURHAM STAR+4.25L8. DARCI JOY+5L9. ZACIAN+5.25L10. LUCKY ONE+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick JADE PHOENIX (16.3%) finished 2nd — the winner KILLER BEE was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 JADE PHOENIX 16.3% 6.13 2
2 0 GO GO SIXTEEN 14.3% 7.00 4
3 0 BALTIC WHISPER 11.4% 8.79 6
4 0 TAKE WHAT YOU NEED 10.3% 9.75 3
5 0 DURHAM STAR 9.4% 10.62 7
6 0 SIGHT HERO 7.4% 13.57 5
7 0 EASY FORTUNE 5.5% 18.07 13
8 0 QIPAO BOSS 5.5% 18.08 12
9 0 KILLER BEE 4.6% 21.59 1
10 0 DARCI JOY 4.6% 21.76 8
11 0 LUCKY ONE 4.2% 23.94 10
12 0 ZACIAN 3.8% 26.50 9
13 0 STORMTROUPER 2.0% 49.36 14
14 0 HOLYSHOWCASING 0.7% 140.36 11
JADE PHOENIXGO GO SIXTEENBALTIC WHISPERTAKE WHAT YOU NEEDDURHAM STARSIGHT HEROEASY FORTUNEQIPAO BOSSKILLER BEE — wonDARCI JOYLUCKY ONEZACIANSTORMTROUPERHOLYSHOWCASING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 25.5

PLACE

1 21.5

3 24.5

8 12

QUINELLA

3,8 104

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 78

1,8 42.5

3,8 44.5

FORECAST

8,3 227

TIERCE

8,3,1 843

TRIO

1,3,8 235

FIRST 4

1,3,7,8 1,406

QUARTET

8,3,1,7 16,952

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 17

A2 —

A3 —