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Sha Tin · 2021-03-13

Race 8

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-13 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SUPER WINNER, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C H Yip, won by 3, with DANDY YEARS second and VUKAN third. The winner led throughout. The 2.6 favourite DANDY YEARS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.34
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 SUPER WINNER Wire to wire TT 1.21.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C H Yip 12 3.7 3
2 1 DANDY YEARS Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 1 2.6 3
3 2 VUKAN K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 9 5.9 3-1/4
4 14 JIANGXI STAMINA Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · W Y So 3 4.9 3-3/4
5 11 SWOT TROOPERS WIND Closed strongly B M F Poon · D J Hall 11 12.0 7-3/4
6 13 NOBLE MAN B/E/TT A Hamelin · J Size 13 59.0 10
7 4 JUNGLE BLAZE Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · K W Lui 7 262.0 10-1/4
8 5 TOP SCORE B/TT R Maia · C W Chang 14 73.0 10-1/2
9 3 FA FA Closed strongly C Y Ho · F C Lor 10 82.0 11
10 10 VIVA POPCORN Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 6 89.0 11
11 6 DIAMOND PIXIU N Callan · P F Yiu 4 157.0 12-1/4
12 12 WAYFOONG STAR Closed strongly H1/SR2/TT1 K H Chan · D J Whyte 5 96.0 16-1/4
13 7 FORZA SPEEDO B1 H N Wong · Y S Tsui 2 289.0 22-1/4
14 8 SILVERY WARRIOR H1/TT A Badel · R Gibson 8 39.0 22-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER WINNER2. DANDY YEARS+3L3. VUKAN+3.25L4. JIANGXI STAMINA+3.75L5. SWOT TROOPERS WIND+7.75L6. NOBLE MAN+10L7. JUNGLE BLAZE+10.25L8. TOP SCORE+10.5L9. FA FA+11L10. VIVA POPCORN+11L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick DANDY YEARS (38.1%) finished 2nd — the winner SUPER WINNER was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 DANDY YEARS 38.1% 2.63 2
2 2 VUKAN 16.0% 6.25 3
3 9 SUPER WINNER 10.2% 9.84 1
4 14 JIANGXI STAMINA 9.4% 10.62 4
5 11 SWOT TROOPERS WIND 7.0% 14.20 5
6 13 NOBLE MAN 5.4% 18.67 6
7 12 WAYFOONG STAR 3.1% 32.17 12
8 8 SILVERY WARRIOR 2.3% 42.59 14
9 3 FA FA 2.2% 44.93 9
10 6 DIAMOND PIXIU 1.6% 60.95 11
11 4 JUNGLE BLAZE 1.5% 66.21 7
12 10 VIVA POPCORN 1.5% 67.07 10
13 5 TOP SCORE 1.2% 81.42 8
14 7 FORZA SPEEDO 0.4% 249.58 13
DANDY YEARSVUKANSUPER WINNER — wonJIANGXI STAMINASWOT TROOPERS WINDNOBLE MANWAYFOONG STARSILVERY WARRIORFA FADIAMOND PIXIUJUNGLE BLAZEVIVA POPCORNTOP SCOREFORZA SPEEDO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 37

PLACE

1 13

2 16.5

9 14.5

QUINELLA

1,9 45.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 27

1,9 21

2,9 39.5

FORECAST

9,1 126

TIERCE

9,1,2 430

TRIO

1,2,9 69

FIRST 4

1,2,9,14 73

QUARTET

9,1,2,14 1,643

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 21

7TH DOUBLE

9/1 22

9/9 208