Sha Tin · 2021-03-13

Race 2

Class 1 GOOD 1600m Course C+3 7 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-13 was Class 1 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. KA YING STAR, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with MORE THAN THIS second and CHAMPION'S WAY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.3 favourite MORE THAN THIS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.33.63

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	KA YING STAR Closed strongly V/TT 1.33.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz	Z Purton	A S Cruz	4	133 lb	4.6	N
2	2	MORE THAN THIS Closed strongly A Badel · K W Lui	A Badel	K W Lui	1	126 lb	2.3	N
3	3	CHAMPION'S WAY Closed strongly P2/TT A Hamelin · J Size	A Hamelin	J Size	5	124 lb	15.0	1-3/4
4	4	FAST MOST FURIOUS J Moreira · D J Hall	J Moreira	D J Hall	3	117 lb	5.8	1-3/4
5	7	SINGAPORE SLING CP K Teetan · A T Millard	K Teetan	A T Millard	2	113 lb	3.6	4
6	5	KINGS SHIELD Led early CP C Y Ho · F C Lor	C Y Ho	F C Lor	7	117 lb	61.0	6-1/4
7	6	PLAYA DEL PUENTE SR/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum	M Chadwick	C S Shum	6	114 lb	34.0	7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick FAST MOST FURIOUS (31.3%) finished 4th — the winner KA YING STAR was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	FAST MOST FURIOUS	31.3%	3.19	4	5.8
2	1	KA YING STAR	24.0%	4.16	1	4.6
3	2	MORE THAN THIS	13.9%	7.19	2	2.3
4	7	SINGAPORE SLING	13.2%	7.59	5	3.6
5	3	CHAMPION'S WAY	8.9%	11.21	3	15.0
6	6	PLAYA DEL PUENTE	5.5%	18.32	7	34.0
7	5	KINGS SHIELD	3.2%	31.40	6	61.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 46

PLACE

1 15.5

2 10.5

3 29

QUINELLA

1,2 57.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 19.5

1,3 69

2,3 51

FORECAST

1,2 127

TIERCE

1,2,3 590

TRIO

1,2,3 153

FIRST 4

1,2,3,4 82

QUARTET

1,2,3,4 1,293

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

8/1 115.5

8/2 11.5

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 22

A3 —

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