Sha Tin · 2021-03-13

Race 7

Class 1 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 9 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-13 was Class 1 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WELLINGTON, ridden by A Badel and trained by R Gibson, won by 1-1/4, with COMPUTER PATCH second and SKY FIELD third. The 3.7 favourite HOT KING PRAWN finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.07.80

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	9	WELLINGTON XB 1.07.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · R Gibson	A Badel	R Gibson	4	113 lb	4.2	1-1/4
2	4	COMPUTER PATCH TT N Callan · A S Cruz	N Callan	A S Cruz	7	121 lb	11.0	1-1/4
3	8	SKY FIELD TT M L Yeung · C Fownes	M L Yeung	C Fownes	1	113 lb	7.6	1-3/4
4	7	WINNING DREAMER M Chadwick · F C Lor	M Chadwick	F C Lor	3	113 lb	4.2	3-1/2
5	1	HOT KING PRAWN J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	5	133 lb	3.7	4
6	5	REGENCY LEGEND TT Z Purton · C S Shum	Z Purton	C S Shum	6	121 lb	6.6	5
7	6	BUDDIES H/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz	C Y Ho	A S Cruz	2	119 lb	58.0	6-1/4
8	3	BIG PARTY K Teetan · F C Lor	K Teetan	F C Lor	9	121 lb	22.0	7
9	2	VOYAGE WARRIOR V A Hamelin · P F Yiu	A Hamelin	P F Yiu	8	122 lb	25.0	7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick HOT KING PRAWN (32.6%) finished 5th — the winner WELLINGTON was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	HOT KING PRAWN	32.6%	3.07	5	3.7
2	9	WELLINGTON	14.2%	7.04	1	4.2
3	7	WINNING DREAMER	12.5%	8.02	4	4.2
4	5	REGENCY LEGEND	12.5%	8.02	6	6.6
5	2	VOYAGE WARRIOR	8.6%	11.64	9	25.0
6	8	SKY FIELD	6.7%	14.92	3	7.6
7	4	COMPUTER PATCH	6.2%	16.12	2	11.0
8	3	BIG PARTY	4.4%	22.83	8	22.0
9	6	BUDDIES	2.4%	41.66	7	58.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 42.5

PLACE

4 25.5

8 24.5

9 15

QUINELLA

4,9 222.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 132

4,9 84

8,9 50

FORECAST

9,4 477

TIERCE

9,4,8 2,036

TRIO

4,8,9 693

FIRST 4

4,7,8,9 429

QUARTET

9,4,8,7 9,517

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,7/4,8,9 42,720

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 21.5

A3 —

6TH DOUBLE

2/4 62

2/9 208

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