Sha Tin · 2021-03-28
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-28 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. WINNER METHOD, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-1/4, with BRILLIANT FORTUNE second and METRO WARRIOR third. Victory came as the 1.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | WINNER METHOD TT 0.55.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 5 | 1.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 3 | BRILLIANT FORTUNE J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 8 | 4.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 2 | METRO WARRIOR B C L Chau · D A Hayes | C L Chau | D A Hayes | 4 | 24.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | TRIPLE TRIPLE CP M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 10 | 19.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 9 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS B A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 7 | 134.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 6 | 6 | FLYING HIGH T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 9 | 54.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | WINNING BREW CP C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 6 | 101.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 1 | MCLUCKY SR1 K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 1 | 18.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 8 | FALCON TURBO B/XB C Wong · A T Millard | C Wong | A T Millard | 2 | 76.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | SUNSHINE SUPREME A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 3 | 17.0 | 9-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | WINNER METHOD | 60.3% | 1.66 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | BRILLIANT FORTUNE | 19.6% | 5.11 | 2 |
| 3 | 7 | SUNSHINE SUPREME | 3.9% | 25.38 | 10 |
| 4 | 4 | TRIPLE TRIPLE | 3.6% | 27.87 | 4 |
| 5 | 2 | METRO WARRIOR | 3.3% | 30.47 | 3 |
| 6 | 8 | FALCON TURBO | 2.6% | 39.14 | 9 |
| 7 | 1 | MCLUCKY | 2.4% | 41.96 | 8 |
| 8 | 10 | WINNING BREW | 2.2% | 45.08 | 7 |
| 9 | 9 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS | 1.3% | 77.18 | 5 |
| 10 | 6 | FLYING HIGH | 0.9% | 112.11 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 13.5
PLACE
2 26.5
3 14
5 10.1
QUINELLA
3,5 27
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 61.5
2,5 35.5
3,5 16
FORECAST
5,3 31
TIERCE
5,3,2 162
TRIO
2,3,5 85
FIRST 4
2,3,4,5 103
QUARTET
5,3,2,4 613
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
7/3 47.5
7/5 153.5
3 PICK 1
A1 13.5
A2 —
A3 —