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Sha Tin · 2021-03-28

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-28 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SUPER TEN, ridden by C L Chau and trained by D J Whyte, won by 3, with CHEERFUL DAYS second and ERNEST FEELING third. The winner led throughout. The 2.9 favourite CHEERFUL DAYS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.21
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 SUPER TEN Wire to wire XB/CP1 1.21.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · D J Whyte 11 4.9 3
2 3 CHEERFUL DAYS Closed strongly B J Moreira · K W Lui 13 2.9 3
3 8 ERNEST FEELING Closed strongly TT1 N Callan · R Gibson 7 14.0 3-1/4
4 1 SPEED FAY FAY Closed strongly B C Schofield · T P Yung 2 9.2 3-3/4
5 9 SUPER MISSION Closed strongly H1 K C Leung · P F Yiu 8 16.0 4-1/4
6 10 TELECOM ROCKET B-/CP2 M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 6 19.0 4-3/4
7 14 KUNG FU TEA Closed strongly SR M F Poon · D J Hall 12 16.0 5-1/4
8 12 VIVA POPCORN Closed strongly H1/TT T Piccone · A S Cruz 1 142.0 5-1/2
9 6 COPARTNER AMBITION TT C Y Ho · W Y So 4 4.0 5-3/4
10 4 TELECOM ELITE B1 B Shinn · P O'Sullivan 3 170.0 11-3/4
11 7 E BROTHER A Badel · K L Man 5 104.0 13-1/2
12 13 NOBLE MAN B/E/TT H N Wong · J Size 9 131.0 14-1/4
13 11 GOLDEN FOUR A Hamelin · C W Chang 10 30.0 16-1/4
14 2 BLAZING BEAT B K Teetan · K H Ting 14 80.0 ML

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER TEN2. CHEERFUL DAYS+3L3. ERNEST FEELING+3.25L4. SPEED FAY FAY+3.75L5. SUPER MISSION+4.25L6. TELECOM ROCKET+4.75L7. KUNG FU TEA+5.25L8. VIVA POPCORN+5.5L9. COPARTNER AMBITION+5.75L10. TELECOM ELITE+11.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick CHEERFUL DAYS (30.7%) finished 2nd — the winner SUPER TEN was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 CHEERFUL DAYS 30.7% 3.26 2
2 6 COPARTNER AMBITION 20.0% 5.01 9
3 1 SPEED FAY FAY 10.9% 9.21 4
4 5 SUPER TEN 8.5% 11.79 1
5 9 SUPER MISSION 8.2% 12.14 5
6 8 ERNEST FEELING 5.0% 20.12 3
7 10 TELECOM ROCKET 4.1% 24.47 6
8 2 BLAZING BEAT 3.1% 32.10 14
9 11 GOLDEN FOUR 3.1% 32.38 13
10 13 NOBLE MAN 2.0% 51.22 12
11 14 KUNG FU TEA 1.5% 66.16 7
12 7 E BROTHER 1.3% 79.20 11
13 12 VIVA POPCORN 1.1% 93.26 8
14 4 TELECOM ELITE 0.7% 138.99 10
CHEERFUL DAYSCOPARTNER AMBITIONSPEED FAY FAYSUPER TEN — wonSUPER MISSIONERNEST FEELINGTELECOM ROCKETBLAZING BEATGOLDEN FOURNOBLE MANKUNG FU TEAE BROTHERVIVA POPCORNTELECOM ELITE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 49

PLACE

3 13.5

5 17.5

8 41.5

QUINELLA

3,5 76

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 28.5

3,8 74

5,8 120

FORECAST

5,3 206

TIERCE

5,3,8 1,669

TRIO

3,5,8 271

FIRST 4

1,3,5,8 538

QUARTET

5,3,8,1 12,460

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,5/3,5,8 6,983

3 PICK 1

A2 29

A3

A1

3RD DOUBLE

5/3 12

5/5 117.5