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Sha Tin · 2021-03-28

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-28 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. AUTHENTIC CHAMP, ridden by N Callan and trained by K H Ting, won by HD, with LOOKING GREAT second and KYRUS UNICORN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite LOOKING GREAT finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.34.03
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 AUTHENTIC CHAMP Closed strongly B/H 1.34.03 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · K H Ting 12 5.4 HD
2 10 LOOKING GREAT J Moreira · F C Lor 10 2.9 HD
3 4 KYRUS UNICORN Closed strongly R Maia · C W Chang 6 13.0 2
4 14 CHARGE ON Closed strongly B M Chadwick · D J Hall 3 22.0 2-1/2
5 5 SACRED IBIS Closed strongly XB A Hamelin · A T Millard 5 24.0 3
6 12 SO WE JOY TT K C Leung · D A Hayes 14 34.0 3-1/2
7 3 HORSESAIN BOLT Closed strongly B/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 13 15.0 4
8 6 SERIOUS LIAISON Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 8 8.0 4
9 9 BEAUTY DAY Led early B/H M F Poon · T P Yung 2 9.1 5-3/4
10 13 JOLLY HONOUR B H N Wong · Y S Tsui 1 191.0 11-1/2
11 11 NATURAL STORM Closed strongly B A Badel · P F Yiu 9 13.0 13-1/4
12 1 MR ALDAN B/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 11 61.0 14-1/2
13 2 SPARKY TRAIL C Schofield · P O'Sullivan 4 61.0 15-3/4
14 8 ANGEL OF MY EYES TT Z Purton · C S Shum 7 10.0 29-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AUTHENTIC CHAMP2. LOOKING GREAT+0.2L3. KYRUS UNICORN+2L4. CHARGE ON+2.5L5. SACRED IBIS+3L6. SO WE JOY+3.5L7. HORSESAIN BOLT+4L8. SERIOUS LIAISON+4L9. BEAUTY DAY+5.75L10. JOLLY HONOUR+11.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick LOOKING GREAT (24.6%) finished 2nd — the winner AUTHENTIC CHAMP was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 LOOKING GREAT 24.6% 4.07 2
2 7 AUTHENTIC CHAMP 12.1% 8.28 1
3 8 ANGEL OF MY EYES 11.5% 8.69 14
4 9 BEAUTY DAY 10.5% 9.51 9
5 11 NATURAL STORM 8.2% 12.20 11
6 3 HORSESAIN BOLT 6.5% 15.31 7
7 14 CHARGE ON 5.9% 17.00 4
8 12 SO WE JOY 4.6% 21.62 6
9 6 SERIOUS LIAISON 4.4% 22.77 8
10 5 SACRED IBIS 3.9% 25.65 5
11 4 KYRUS UNICORN 3.2% 31.46 3
12 2 SPARKY TRAIL 1.9% 52.97 13
13 1 MR ALDAN 1.8% 55.91 12
14 13 JOLLY HONOUR 0.9% 106.85 10
LOOKING GREATAUTHENTIC CHAMP — wonANGEL OF MY EYESBEAUTY DAYNATURAL STORMHORSESAIN BOLTCHARGE ONSO WE JOYSERIOUS LIAISONSACRED IBISKYRUS UNICORNSPARKY TRAILMR ALDANJOLLY HONOUR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 54.5

PLACE

4 40

7 19.5

10 14.5

QUINELLA

7,10 92

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 141

4,10 75

7,10 37.5

FORECAST

7,10 247

TIERCE

7,10,4 2,237

TRIO

4,7,10 459

FIRST 4

4,7,10,14 1,837

QUARTET

7,10,4,14 35,023

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 21

A2

A1

7TH DOUBLE

11/7 833

11/10 111.5