Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2021-03-28

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-28 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CITY LEGEND, ridden by R Maia and trained by T P Yung, won by 2-1/2, with GRACYLOVE second and ZONE D third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite MISSION SMART finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.21.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 CITY LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT 1.21.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · T P Yung 3 11.0 2-1/2
2 8 GRACYLOVE Closed strongly B- K C Leung · D J Hall 5 14.0 2-1/2
3 2 ZONE D Closed strongly H/P/TT B Shinn · J Size 7 4.8 3
4 10 MISSION SMART Closed strongly CP/H J Moreira · F C Lor 1 3.2 4-1/4
5 9 GREEN ENVY Closed strongly V/TT A Badel · C Fownes 4 4.2 4-1/2
6 12 GARLIC HERO Led early E/TT M Chadwick · C H Yip 10 29.0 5-1/2
7 3 FORTUNE MASTER Closed strongly K Teetan · K W Lui 8 5.8 6-1/2
8 13 AMAZING LUCK Closed strongly B H W Lai · P O'Sullivan 11 166.0 6-3/4
9 1 CHEERFUL LEADER B/XB K H Chan · P F Yiu 12 21.0 7
10 6 FULL SAILING B1 C Wong · Y S Tsui 6 269.0 9
11 4 TAKINGUFURTHER H/V M L Yeung · K H Ting 13 47.0 10
12 5 TOP SCORE B/TT M F Poon · C W Chang 9 75.0 12
13 14 HAPPY RUBY H/P/XB/TT H N Wong · A T Millard 14 414.0 17-1/4
14 7 ALEE KING PRAWN B T Piccone · D A Hayes 2 190.0 19-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CITY LEGEND2. GRACYLOVE+2.5L3. ZONE D+3L4. MISSION SMART+4.25L5. GREEN ENVY+4.5L6. GARLIC HERO+5.5L7. FORTUNE MASTER+6.5L8. AMAZING LUCK+6.75L9. CHEERFUL LEADER+7L10. FULL SAILING+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick MISSION SMART (33.2%) finished 4th — the winner CITY LEGEND was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 MISSION SMART 33.2% 3.01 4
2 3 FORTUNE MASTER 20.7% 4.84 7
3 9 GREEN ENVY 18.0% 5.56 5
4 2 ZONE D 10.5% 9.55 3
5 11 CITY LEGEND 5.3% 18.80 1
6 4 TAKINGUFURTHER 3.6% 27.69 11
7 1 CHEERFUL LEADER 2.2% 45.45 9
8 8 GRACYLOVE 1.9% 52.97 2
9 13 AMAZING LUCK 1.7% 59.13 8
10 6 FULL SAILING 0.9% 114.06 10
11 5 TOP SCORE 0.7% 134.63 12
12 12 GARLIC HERO 0.7% 151.16 6
13 7 ALEE KING PRAWN 0.4% 273.20 14
14 14 HAPPY RUBY 0.3% 389.66 13
MISSION SMARTFORTUNE MASTERGREEN ENVYZONE DCITY LEGEND — wonTAKINGUFURTHERCHEERFUL LEADERGRACYLOVEAMAZING LUCKFULL SAILINGTOP SCOREGARLIC HEROALEE KING PRAWNHAPPY RUBY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 119

PLACE

2 18

8 44.5

11 33.5

QUINELLA

8,11 1,278

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 152.5

2,11 126

8,11 250.5

FORECAST

11,8 2,603

TIERCE

11,8,2 18,125

TRIO

2,8,11 2,387

FIRST 4

2,8,10,11 839

QUARTET

11,8,2,10 38,124

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,6,12/2,8,11 34,553

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 20.5

A1

6TH DOUBLE

6/8 81.5

6/11 338